Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Suns, while the market favors Spurs (88%). 11 of 27 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Spurs (-9.5)

11 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (41%) · Suns at 13¢ · $755K held · ended Nov 10

Spurs88¢Suns12¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 41%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$755.0K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 12.5¢

-76% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

11 of 27 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 88%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs88%

Suns13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs16 traders

Total Value$615.4K

Total Shares754,592

Combined PnL+$250.5K

Suns11 traders

Total Value$136.7K

Total Shares742,042

Combined PnL$-249.2K

Spurs — 59%Suns — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpurs 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpSuns 50% · 6

Aligned

sniperSpurs 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSpurs 55% · 22

Diverging

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Spurs 64% · 28

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188	Spursavg 48¢	$355.0K	$602.7K	+$247.7K	— 0-8 (8)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Sunsavg 52¢	$359.8K	$128.0K	$-231.8K	42% 470-656 (1126)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 56.6¢	$3.1K	$4.5K	+$1.4K	53% 218-191 (409)
BA bands1CTR	Sunsavg 52¢	$10.4K	$3.3K	$-7.1K	50% 228-229 (457)
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Sunsavg 52¢	$6.7K	$2.4K	$-4.3K	55% 63-51 (114)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Sunsavg 52¢	$7.0K	$2.3K	$-4.7K	5% 5-90 (95)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Spursavg 44.3¢	$1.3K	$2.2K	+$516.63	28% 122-309 (431)
HO HomeRunHazard	Spursavg 46.2¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$287.63	55% 1053-856 (1909)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Spursavg 70.5¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$117.67	51% 507-483 (990)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 70.5¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$203.21
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 22.6¢	$474.08	$388.54	-$85.54
RN1	Spursavg 64.3¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	-$74.91	51% 289-274 (563)
SL SlickRick123	Spursavg 47¢	$379.76	$658.52	+$197.96	19% 40-176 (216)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Sunsavg 52.5¢	$746.47	$614.38	-$146.83	52% 120-112 (232)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 47¢	$235	$400	+$160
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 52.5¢	$511.47	$214.38	-$306.83
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Sunsavg 41.9¢	$814.09	$545.67	-$268.41	42% 132-179 (311)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 75.5¢	$292.11	$315.17	+$23.06
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 41.9¢	$521.98	$230.51	-$291.47
38 38791873984189	Spursavg 57.6¢	$490.59	$437.63	+$163.96	48% 436-463 (899)
GC GC-P	Spursavg 47¢	$295	$417.5	+$122.5	7% 18-249 (267)
NM NM-P	Spursavg 47¢	$291.89	$383.83	+$91.93	55% 1709-1396 (3105)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Sunsavg 50¢	$899.5	$292.3	-$568.8	57% 104-80 (184)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Sunsavg 54¢	$947.37	$289.47	-$657.89	54% 20-17 (37)
TA takeormake	Spursavg 71.4¢	$125.82	$138.17	-$14.04	22% 85-296 (381)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Spursavg 77¢	$93.17	$98.62	-$14.52	59% 1209-854 (2063)
dips.<$100	Spursavg 77¢	$70.07	$74.16	+$8.19	44% 125-158 (283)
LR lryyy<$100	Spursavg 47¢	$41.36	$71.72	+$34.32	55% 78-63 (141)
alpheclabs2CTR	Sunsavg 42.6¢	$105.11	$51.26	-$53.85	46% 50-58 (108)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Spursavg 77¢	$46.2	$48.9	+$5.7	62% 79-49 (128)
PA Pan9XCTR	Sunsavg 43.5¢	$124.06	$20.19	-$2.51	49% 194-203 (397)

0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188

Spurs

Invested

$354,966.16

Value

$602.7K

PnL

+$247.7K

Record

—

0-8 (8)

BreakTheBankCTR

Suns

Invested

$359,835.32

Value

$128.0K

PnL

$-231.8K

Record

42%

470-656 (1126)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$3,147.87

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

bands1CTR

Suns

Invested

$10,399.99

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-7.1K

Record

50%

228-229 (457)

Siddhartha1CTR

Suns

Invested

$6,666.66

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

55%

63-51 (114)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Suns

Invested

$7,020

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

5-90 (95)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Spurs

Invested

$1,259.48

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$516.63

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

HomeRunHazard

Spurs

Invested

$1,632.93

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$287.63

Record

55%

1053-856 (1909)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$1,783.78

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$117.67

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

Both legs:

Spurs$1,269.7370.5¢+$203.21

Suns$474.0822.6¢-$85.54

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$1,426.38

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$74.91

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

SlickRick123

Spurs

Invested

$379.76

Value

$658.52

PnL

+$197.96

Record

19%

40-176 (216)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$746.47

Value

$614.38

PnL

-$146.83

Record

52%

120-112 (232)

Both legs:

Spurs$23547¢+$160

Suns$511.4752.5¢-$306.83

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$814.09

Value

$545.67

PnL

-$268.41

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

Both legs:

Spurs$292.1175.5¢+$23.06

Suns$521.9841.9¢-$291.47

38791873984189

Spurs

Invested

$490.59

Value

$437.63

PnL

+$163.96

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

GC-P

Spurs

Invested

$295

Value

$417.5

PnL

+$122.5

Record

18-249 (267)

NM-P

Spurs

Invested

$291.89

Value

$383.83

PnL

+$91.93

Record

55%

1709-1396 (3105)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Suns

Invested

$899.5

Value

$292.3

PnL

-$568.8

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

glennyorkshireCTR

Suns

Invested

$947.37

Value

$289.47

PnL

-$657.89

Record

54%

20-17 (37)

takeormake

Spurs

Invested

$125.82

Value

$138.17

PnL

-$14.04

Record

22%

85-296 (381)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Spurs

Invested

$93.17

Value

$98.62

PnL

-$14.52

Record

59%

1209-854 (2063)

dips.<$100

Spurs

Invested

$70.07

Value

$74.16

PnL

+$8.19

Record

44%

125-158 (283)

lryyy<$100

Spurs

Invested

$41.36

Value

$71.72

PnL

+$34.32

Record

55%

78-63 (141)

alpheclabs2CTR

Suns

Invested

$105.11

Value

$51.26

PnL

-$53.85

Record

46%

50-58 (108)

suitcase6628<$100

Spurs

Invested

$46.2

Value

$48.9

PnL

+$5.7

Record

62%

79-49 (128)

Pan9XCTR

Suns

Invested

$124.06

Value

$20.19

PnL

-$2.51

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

11 of 27 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 88%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpurs 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpSuns 50% · 6

Aligned

sniperSpurs 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSpurs 55% · 22

Diverging

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Spurs 64% · 28

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.