Spread: Spurs (-7.5)

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (67%) · Spurs at 99¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 10

Spurs99¢Suns1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 98.5¢

+48% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs99%

Suns2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs10 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares9,644

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Suns5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares7,759

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Spurs — 67%Suns — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpSpurs 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrSpurs 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Spursavg 64.2¢	$2.1K	$2.9K	+$883.71	57% 104-80 (184)
73 739633786	Spursavg 55.8¢	$1.6K	$2.6K	+$994.27	0% 0-122 (122)
65 6512395314597884	Spursavg 80.4¢	$997.73	$1.1K	+$146.99	42% 132-179 (311)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 89.6¢	$943.71	$1.0K	+$96.97	53% 218-191 (409)
RN1	Spursavg 63.5¢	$552.04	$823.77	+$271.73	51% 289-274 (563)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Sunsavg 37¢	$681.77	$418.36	-$263.41	28% 122-309 (431)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Sunsavg 44¢	$638.72	$297.34	-$341.39	55% 1053-856 (1909)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Sunsavg 44¢	$693.79	$212.87	-$480.92	42% 470-656 (1126)
NM NM-P	Spursavg 54¢	$171.5	$175	+$3.5	55% 1709-1396 (3105)
TA takeormakeCTR	Sunsavg 45¢	$221.25	$102.06	-$119.93	22% 85-296 (381)
38 38791873984189	Spursavg 83.5¢	$213.74	$100.48	+$36.68	48% 436-463 (899)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Sunsavg 44¢	$150.97	$95.99	-$52.65	52% 120-112 (232)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 55¢	$39.65	$62	+$21.99
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 44¢	$111.32	$33.99	-$74.64
GC GC-P<$100	Spursavg 54¢	$55.44	$69.56	+$14.12	7% 18-249 (267)
PA Pan9X<$100	Spursavg 79.2¢	$99.76	$61.22	-$15.97	49% 194-203 (397)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Sunsavg 20¢	$514.72	$54.87	-$459.85	51% 507-483 (990)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 98.7¢	$30.59	$30.69	+$0.1
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 20¢	$484.13	$24.18	-$459.95
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Sunsavg 43¢	$67.22	$21.1	-$43.77	26% 127-364 (491)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Spursavg 55¢	$3.31	$4.51	+$1.2	18% 55-248 (303)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Spurs

Invested

$2,118.35

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$883.71

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

739633786

Spurs

Invested

$1,579.63

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$994.27

Record

0-122 (122)

6512395314597884

Spurs

Invested

$997.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$146.99

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$943.71

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$96.97

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$552.04

Value

$823.77

PnL

+$271.73

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Suns

Invested

$681.77

Value

$418.36

PnL

-$263.41

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Suns

Invested

$638.72

Value

$297.34

PnL

-$341.39

Record

55%

1053-856 (1909)

BreakTheBankCTR

Suns

Invested

$693.79

Value

$212.87

PnL

-$480.92

Record

42%

470-656 (1126)

NM-P

Spurs

Invested

$171.5

Value

$175

PnL

+$3.5

Record

55%

1709-1396 (3105)

takeormakeCTR

Suns

Invested

$221.25

Value

$102.06

PnL

-$119.93

Record

22%

85-296 (381)

38791873984189

Spurs

Invested

$213.74

Value

$100.48

PnL

+$36.68

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$150.97

Value

$95.99

PnL

-$52.65

Record

52%

120-112 (232)

Both legs:

Spurs$39.6555¢+$21.99

Suns$111.3244¢-$74.64

GC-P<$100

Spurs

Invested

$55.44

Value

$69.56

PnL

+$14.12

Record

18-249 (267)

Pan9X<$100

Spurs

Invested

$99.76

Value

$61.22

PnL

-$15.97

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$514.72

Value

$54.87

PnL

-$459.85

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

Both legs:

Spurs$30.5998.7¢+$0.1

Suns$484.1320¢-$459.95

LimousinCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$67.22

Value

$21.1

PnL

-$43.77

Record

26%

127-364 (491)

ameisgoat11<$100

Spurs

Invested

$3.31

Value

$4.51

PnL

+$1.2

Record

18%

55-248 (303)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpSpurs 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrSpurs 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.