Spread: Spurs (-27.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (70%) · Suns at 70¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 10

Spurs30¢Suns70¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 70%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

-$151.72

Smart Money Entry

72.1¢ → 70¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

7 of 10 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Spurs30%

Suns70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,738

Combined PnL-$189.13

Spurs3 traders

Total Value$155.23

Total Shares590

Combined PnL+$37.41

Suns — 70%Spurs — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Sunsavg 70.8¢	$4.8K	$4.3K	-$491.48	53% 218-191 (409)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 70.8¢	$3.1K	$2.4K	-$719.69
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 40¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$228.22
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Spursavg 30.3¢	$2.7K	$1.7K	-$375.67	51% 507-483 (990)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 30.3¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$263.46
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 68.2¢	$320.41	$350.08	-$112.21
65 6512395314597884	Sunsavg 69.8¢	$639.9	$578.86	-$61.04	42% 132-179 (311)
RN1	Sunsavg 75.1¢	$613.3	$498.78	-$109.25	51% 289-274 (563)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Sunsavg 92¢	$695.32	$364.01	-$219.78	48% 436-463 (899)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 49.5¢	$189.71	$260.44	+$70.73
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 92¢	$297.77	$103.57	-$290.51
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Sunsavg 75.8¢	$370.17	$301.2	-$68.97	22% 85-296 (381)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 75.8¢	$256.82	$196.62	-$60.2
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 45.5¢	$113.35	$104.58	-$8.77
nigiri99CTR	Spursavg 8¢	$43.47	$122.4	+$78.93	40% 29-43 (72)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Sunsavg 73¢	$69.35	$57.95	-$11.4	59% 1209-854 (2063)
dips.<$100	Sunsavg 73¢	$69.35	$57.95	-$11.4	44% 125-158 (283)
PA Pan9XCTR	Spursavg 71¢	$126.17	$28.12	-$40.97	49% 194-203 (397)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Sunsavg 48¢	$16.96	$20.49	+$3.53	19% 40-176 (216)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Spursavg 47¢	$5.26	$4.7	-$0.56	28% 122-309 (431)
SE sentrio<$100	Sunsavg 93¢	$4.34	$4.2	-$0.14	28% 100-254 (354)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear<$100	Sunsavg 40¢	$1	$1.56	+$0.56	5% 12-213 (225)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$4,777.94

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$491.48

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

Both legs:

Suns$3,127.9470.8¢-$719.69

Spurs$1,65040¢+$228.22

FlaznorpARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$2,660.09

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$375.67

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

Both legs:

Spurs$1,657.830.3¢-$263.46

Suns$320.4168.2¢-$112.21

6512395314597884

Suns

Invested

$639.9

Value

$578.86

PnL

-$61.04

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

RN1

Suns

Invested

$613.3

Value

$498.78

PnL

-$109.25

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$695.32

Value

$364.01

PnL

-$219.78

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

Both legs:

Spurs$189.7149.5¢+$70.73

Suns$297.7792¢-$290.51

takeormakeARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$370.17

Value

$301.2

PnL

-$68.97

Record

22%

85-296 (381)

Both legs:

Suns$256.8275.8¢-$60.2

Spurs$113.3545.5¢-$8.77

nigiri99CTR

Spurs

Invested

$43.47

Value

$122.4

PnL

+$78.93

Record

40%

29-43 (72)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Suns

Invested

$69.35

Value

$57.95

PnL

-$11.4

Record

59%

1209-854 (2063)

dips.<$100

Suns

Invested

$69.35

Value

$57.95

PnL

-$11.4

Record

44%

125-158 (283)

Pan9XCTR

Spurs

Invested

$126.17

Value

$28.12

PnL

-$40.97

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

SlickRick123<$100

Suns

Invested

$16.96

Value

$20.49

PnL

+$3.53

Record

19%

40-176 (216)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$5.26

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0.56

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

sentrio<$100

Suns

Invested

$4.34

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$0.14

Record

28%

100-254 (354)

SunflowaRebuildYear<$100

Suns

Invested

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0.56

Record

12-213 (225)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

7 of 10 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.