Spread: Spurs (-19.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (75%) · Spurs at 85¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 10

Spurs85¢Suns15¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 75%

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 85.3¢

+40% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs85%

Suns15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs9 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares8,533

Combined PnL+$879.8

Suns3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,562

Combined PnL+$135.75

Spurs — 75%Suns — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 62.6¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$352.13	53% 218-191 (409)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Sunsavg 34.8¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$50.6	51% 507-483 (990)
BI biying88888CTR	Sunsavg 51.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$190.11	19% 30-131 (161)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Spursavg 48¢	$911.52	$1.1K	+$247.37	57% 104-80 (184)
RN1	Spursavg 78.3¢	$903.98	$1.0K	+$132.7	51% 289-274 (563)
65 6512395314597884	Spursavg 57¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$18.08	42% 132-179 (311)
TA takeormake	Spursavg 65.6¢	$982.96	$869.71	+$139.15	22% 85-296 (381)
38 38791873984189	Spursavg 54.9¢	$162.33	$167.45	+$5.12	48% 436-463 (899)
dips.<$100	Spursavg 85¢	$51.06	$53.04	+$1.98	44% 125-158 (283)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Sunsavg 49¢	$40.67	$38.03	-$3.75	28% 122-309 (431)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Spursavg 28¢	$28.35	$27.41	-$0.95	59% 1209-854 (2063)
PA Pan9X<$100	Spursavg 39.9¢	$32.74	$23.87	+$20.38	49% 194-203 (397)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$2,767.75

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$352.13

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

FlaznorpCTR

Suns

Invested

$1,582.77

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$50.6

Record

51%

507-483 (990)

biying88888CTR

Suns

Invested

$1,065.88

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$190.11

Record

19%

30-131 (161)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Spurs

Invested

$911.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$247.37

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$903.98

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$132.7

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

6512395314597884

Spurs

Invested

$1,071.07

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$18.08

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

takeormake

Spurs

Invested

$982.96

Value

$869.71

PnL

+$139.15

Record

22%

85-296 (381)

38791873984189

Spurs

Invested

$162.33

Value

$167.45

PnL

+$5.12

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

dips.<$100

Spurs

Invested

$51.06

Value

$53.04

PnL

+$1.98

Record

44%

125-158 (283)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$40.67

Value

$38.03

PnL

-$3.75

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Spurs

Invested

$28.35

Value

$27.41

PnL

-$0.95

Record

59%

1209-854 (2063)

Pan9X<$100

Spurs

Invested

$32.74

Value

$23.87

PnL

+$20.38

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.9%

85.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.