Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 261.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 95¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 33%
$1.2K
-$3.52
91.5¢ → 94.7¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 95%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Underavg 92.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$34.64 | 55% 750-604 (1354) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 76¢ | $76.76 | $96.96 | +$20.2 | 57% 4077-3095 (7172) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 9.9¢ | $85.49 | $46.36 | -$39.13 | 51% 1945-1901 (3846) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Overavg 4¢ | $9 | $12.04 | +$3.04 | 60% 2627-1728 (4355) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 20¢ | $26 | $5.2 | -$20.8 | 48% 1454-1600 (3054) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Overavg 8¢ | $4.45 | $2.98 | -$1.47 | — |
Invested
$1,045.28
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$34.64
Record
55%
750-604 (1354)
RN1<$100Invested
$76.76
Value
$96.96
PnL
+$20.2
Record
57%
4077-3095 (7172)
Invested
$85.49
Value
$46.36
PnL
-$39.13
Record
51%
1945-1901 (3846)
Invested
$9
Value
$12.04
PnL
+$3.04
Record
60%
2627-1728 (4355)
Invested
$26
Value
$5.2
PnL
-$20.8
Record
48%
1454-1600 (3054)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$2.98
PnL
-$1.47
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.