Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 251.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 60¢ · $919 held · ended Nov 12

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$919.36

Combined PnL

$31.7

Smart Money Entry

78.7¢ → 60¢

-24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$300.13

Total Shares443

Combined PnL-$58.81

Over4 traders

Total Value$213.98

Total Shares525

Combined PnL+$90.51

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 62.5¢	$304.04	$318.05	+$32.83	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
└ Over leg	Overavg 31.4¢	$110.96	$164.15	+$58.86
└ Under leg	Underavg 62.5¢	$179.94	$153.91	-$26.03
38 38791873984189	Underavg 80¢	$226.4	$183.37	-$39.52	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 20¢	$76.87	$153.74	+$76.87	31% 412-897 (1309)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 42.9¢	$213.87	$87.2	-$39.46	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.9¢	$74.19	$60.55	-$13.64
└ Under leg	Underavg 72¢	$29.52	$26.65	-$25.82
PA Pan9X	Underavg 80.4¢	$102.08	$82.52	-$19.56	49% 693-734 (1427)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 41.6¢	$29.88	$32.86	+$2.99	55% 719-584 (1303)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$14.88	$25.06	+$10.18	31% 412-920 (1332)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 69.6¢	$20.19	$18.85	-$1.34	55% 683-554 (1237)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 59.2¢	$11.03	$12.72	+$1.68	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
E5 0xe550...be3f<$100	Underavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.68	-$0.07	—
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$1.85	$2.33	+$0.48	60% 2617-1724 (4341)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$304.04

Value

$318.05

PnL

+$32.83

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Both legs:

Over$110.9631.4¢+$58.86

Under$179.9462.5¢-$26.03

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$226.4

Value

$183.37

PnL

-$39.52

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$76.87

Value

$153.74

PnL

+$76.87

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$213.87

Value

$87.2

PnL

-$39.46

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Both legs:

Over$74.1942.9¢-$13.64

Under$29.5272¢-$25.82

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$102.08

Value

$82.52

PnL

-$19.56

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.88

Value

$32.86

PnL

+$2.99

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.88

Value

$25.06

PnL

+$10.18

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$20.19

Value

$18.85

PnL

-$1.34

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$11.03

Value

$12.72

PnL

+$1.68

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

0xe550...be3f<$100

Under

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.68

PnL

-$0.07

Record

—

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.85

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.48

Record

60%

2617-1724 (4341)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.