Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (58%) · Trail Blazers at 62¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Trail Blazers62¢Kings38¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$74.49

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 62¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers62%

Kings38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers7 traders

Total Value$924.09

Total Shares1,476

Combined PnL+$83.62

Kings5 traders

Total Value$372.89

Total Shares935

Combined PnL-$9.13

Trail Blazers — 58%Kings — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 56.1¢	$511.92	$566.21	+$54.29	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 60.1¢	$210.66	$211.6	+$0.94	56% 4019-3135 (7154)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 60.1¢	$137.12	$149.34	+$12.22
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 40.8¢	$73.54	$62.26	-$11.28
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Kingsavg 42¢	$203.7	$208.55	+$4.85	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
TA takeormake	Trail Blazersavg 59.5¢	$128.45	$133.92	+$5.47	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
38 38791873984189	Trail Blazersavg 57¢	$96.11	$108.37	+$12.26	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Kingsavg 36.5¢	$84.26	$87.78	+$3.52	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
MI micky456<$100	Trail Blazersavg 58.2¢	$83.77	$76.26	+$3.81	47% 489-544 (1033)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Kingsavg 43¢	$80.41	$65.45	-$14.96	36% 883-1569 (2452)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Trail Blazersavg 44¢	$12.53	$17.65	+$5.12	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
PA Pan9X<$100	Trail Blazersavg 57¢	$14.25	$16.25	+$2	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Kingsavg 43¢	$8.6	$7	-$1.6	50% 368-373 (741)
SU suntori<$100	Trail Blazersavg 57¢	$4.76	$5.43	+$0.67	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Kingsavg 43¢	$5.05	$4.11	-$0.94	48% 855-936 (1791)

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$511.92

Value

$566.21

PnL

+$54.29

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$210.66

Value

$211.6

PnL

+$0.94

Record

56%

4019-3135 (7154)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$137.1260.1¢+$12.22

Kings$73.5440.8¢-$11.28

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Kings

Invested

$203.7

Value

$208.55

PnL

+$4.85

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

takeormake

Trail Blazers

Invested

$128.45

Value

$133.92

PnL

+$5.47

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

38791873984189

Trail Blazers

Invested

$96.11

Value

$108.37

PnL

+$12.26

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$84.26

Value

$87.78

PnL

+$3.52

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

micky456<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$83.77

Value

$76.26

PnL

+$3.81

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

LimousinCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$80.41

Value

$65.45

PnL

-$14.96

Record

36%

883-1569 (2452)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$12.53

Value

$17.65

PnL

+$5.12

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

Pan9X<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$14.25

Value

$16.25

PnL

+$2

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

Anon455CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$8.6

Value

PnL

-$1.6

Record

50%

368-373 (741)

suntori<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4.76

Value

$5.43

PnL

+$0.67

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$5.05

Value

$4.11

PnL

-$0.94

Record

48%

855-936 (1791)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.