Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (46%) · Trail Blazers at 67¢ · $979 held · ended Nov 14

Trail Blazers67¢Kings33¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$978.96

Combined PnL

$33.74

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 66.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers67%

Kings34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers6 traders

Total Value$581.36

Total Shares859

Combined PnL+$26.87

Kings7 traders

Total Value$345.57

Total Shares988

Combined PnL+$6.87

Trail Blazers — 46%Kings — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 66¢	$297.66	$311.19	+$13.53	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Kingsavg 33.2¢	$174.18	$191.44	+$17.26	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
TA takeormake	Trail Blazersavg 66.9¢	$101.22	$98.43	-$0.94	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
38 38791873984189	Trail Blazersavg 63.4¢	$108.21	$79.27	+$0.9	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Kingsavg 34.5¢	$79.73	$76.28	-$3.45	48% 855-936 (1791)
SU suntori<$100	Trail Blazersavg 52¢	$41.25	$53.15	+$11.9	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 61¢	$48.62	$52.03	+$3.41	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 61¢	$26.84	$27.94	+$1.1
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 33¢	$21.78	$24.09	+$2.31
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Kingsavg 36¢	$46.44	$42.57	-$3.87	36% 893-1601 (2494)
AN Anon455<$100	Trail Blazersavg 60¢	$21.6	$22.32	+$0.72	50% 368-373 (741)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Kingsavg 35.5¢	$23.62	$22.32	-$1.3	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Trail Blazersavg 64¢	$16.24	$17	+$0.76	62% 1024-638 (1662)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Kingsavg 40¢	$11.13	$9.22	-$1.72	47% 489-544 (1033)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Kingsavg 37¢	$2.04	$2.1	+$0.06	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Kingsavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.65	-$0.1	43% 920-1244 (2164)

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$297.66

Value

$311.19

PnL

+$13.53

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Kings

Invested

$174.18

Value

$191.44

PnL

+$17.26

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

takeormake

Trail Blazers

Invested

$101.22

Value

$98.43

PnL

-$0.94

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

38791873984189

Trail Blazers

Invested

$108.21

Value

$79.27

PnL

+$0.9

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$79.73

Value

$76.28

PnL

-$3.45

Record

48%

855-936 (1791)

suntori<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$41.25

Value

$53.15

PnL

+$11.9

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

Pan9XARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$48.62

Value

$52.03

PnL

+$3.41

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$26.8461¢+$1.1

Kings$21.7833¢+$2.31

VenusianCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$46.44

Value

$42.57

PnL

-$3.87

Record

36%

893-1601 (2494)

Anon455<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$21.6

Value

$22.32

PnL

+$0.72

Record

50%

368-373 (741)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$23.62

Value

$22.32

PnL

-$1.3

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

darkumbreon88<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$16.24

Value

$17

PnL

+$0.76

Record

62%

1024-638 (1662)

micky456CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$11.13

Value

$9.22

PnL

-$1.72

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$2.04

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.06

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

sentrioCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.1

Record

43%

920-1244 (2164)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.