Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (50%) · Trail Blazers at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Trail Blazers94¢Kings6¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 50%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$311.2

Smart Money Entry

76.9¢ → 94¢

+22% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers94%

Kings6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,477

Combined PnL+$532.35

Kings5 traders

Total Value$811.04

Total Shares3,421

Combined PnL-$221.15

Trail Blazers — 50%Kings — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (10 on Kings) disagree here.

whaleKings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 73.2¢	$948.31	$1.2K	+$291	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 82.7¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	+$28.49	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Trail Blazersavg 77¢	$769.23	$956.04	+$186.81	51% 487-460 (947)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Kingsavg 22.1¢	$2.6K	$515.99	-$175.06	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
AN Anon455CTR	Kingsavg 27¢	$293.02	$257.7	-$35.32	49% 374-384 (758)
TA takeormake	Trail Blazersavg 70¢	$96.35	$112.13	+$21.54	57% 3443-2562 (6005)
CI cigarettes<$100	Trail Blazersavg 68¢	$34	$38.5	+$4.5	53% 6903-6063 (12966)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Kingsavg 26.2¢	$30.8	$26.99	-$3.81	48% 2982-3276 (6258)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kingsavg 19¢	$7.6	$9.2	+$1.6	49% 1381-1418 (2799)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Kingsavg 36¢	$9.71	$1.16	-$8.55	48% 505-558 (1063)

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$948.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$291

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,156.33

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$28.49

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Trail Blazers

Invested

$769.23

Value

$956.04

PnL

+$186.81

Record

51%

487-460 (947)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Kings

Invested

$2,599.97

Value

$515.99

PnL

-$175.06

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

Anon455CTR

Kings

Invested

$293.02

Value

$257.7

PnL

-$35.32

Record

49%

374-384 (758)

takeormake

Trail Blazers

Invested

$96.35

Value

$112.13

PnL

+$21.54

Record

57%

3443-2562 (6005)

cigarettes<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$34

Value

$38.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

53%

6903-6063 (12966)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$30.8

Value

$26.99

PnL

-$3.81

Record

48%

2982-3276 (6258)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$7.6

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$1.6

Record

49%

1381-1418 (2799)

micky456CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$9.71

Value

$1.16

PnL

-$8.55

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (10 on Kings) disagree here.

whaleKings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.