Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (73%) · Trail Blazers at 82¢ · $831 held · ended Nov 14

Trail Blazers82¢Kings18¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 73%

Total Value

$830.88

Combined PnL

-$0.07

Smart Money Entry

74.8¢ → 82¢

+10% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers82%

Kings18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers8 traders

Total Value$726.33

Total Shares916

Combined PnL+$36.47

Kings3 traders

Total Value$104.55

Total Shares579

Combined PnL-$36.54

Trail Blazers — 73%Kings — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+53 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Trail Blazersavg 75¢	$303.29	$315.42	+$12.13	62% 1024-638 (1662)
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 73¢	$146	$156	+$10	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
TA takeormake<$100	Trail Blazersavg 78¢	$74.88	$78.72	+$3.84	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
RN1<$100	Trail Blazersavg 73¢	$54.34	$58.07	+$3.72	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Kingsavg 25.1¢	$75.14	$53.81	-$21.33	51% 499-470 (969)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Kingsavg 23.6¢	$64.32	$49.03	-$15.29	45% 224-276 (500)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Trail Blazersavg 75¢	$44.69	$47.55	+$2.86	37% 841-1416 (2257)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Trail Blazersavg 75¢	$30.39	$31.61	+$1.22	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
MI micky456<$100	Trail Blazersavg 78¢	$23.4	$24.6	+$1.2	47% 489-544 (1033)
PA Pan9X<$100	Trail Blazersavg 73¢	$19.61	$14.36	+$1.5	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Kingsavg 21¢	$1.64	$1.72	+$0.08	50% 3544-3611 (7155)

darkumbreon88

Trail Blazers

Invested

$303.29

Value

$315.42

PnL

+$12.13

Record

62%

1024-638 (1662)

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$146

Value

$156

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

takeormake<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$74.88

Value

$78.72

PnL

+$3.84

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

RN1<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$54.34

Value

$58.07

PnL

+$3.72

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$75.14

Value

$53.81

PnL

-$21.33

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$64.32

Value

$49.03

PnL

-$15.29

Record

45%

224-276 (500)

topdogbigboi<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$44.69

Value

$47.55

PnL

+$2.86

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$30.39

Value

$31.61

PnL

+$1.22

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

micky456<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$23.4

Value

$24.6

PnL

+$1.2

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

Pan9X<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$19.61

Value

$14.36

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.72

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+53 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.