Spread: Trail Blazers (-14.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (46%) · Trail Blazers at 61¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Trail Blazers61¢Kings39¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 46%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$302

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 61¢

+33% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers61%

Kings39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,758

Combined PnL+$330.63

Kings7 traders

Total Value$420.75

Total Shares783

Combined PnL-$28.63

Trail Blazers — 46%Kings — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 60.7¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$275.79	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 60.7¢	$685.16	$693.72	+$8.56
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 52¢	$554.29	$410.19	-$284.35
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 48.3¢	$1.7K	$630.67	+$255.84	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
RN1ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 38.3¢	$258.05	$294.08	+$36.03	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 38.3¢	$187.61	$229.95	+$42.34
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 58.2¢	$70.44	$64.13	-$6.31
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Kingsavg 56¢	$220.63	$210.66	-$9.97	45% 430-535 (965)
TA takeormake	Trail Blazersavg 40.3¢	$148.81	$192.11	+$56.45	57% 3443-2562 (6005)
AN Anon455	Trail Blazersavg 44¢	$134.64	$143.82	+$9.18	49% 374-384 (758)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Kingsavg 54¢	$108	$106	-$2	50% 3702-3662 (7364)
MI micky456CTR	Kingsavg 56.9¢	$151.54	$70.49	-$10.05	48% 505-558 (1063)
38 38791873984189<$100	Trail Blazersavg 44¢	$31.68	$33.84	+$2.16	48% 2982-3276 (6258)
CI cigarettes<$100	Trail Blazersavg 38¢	$19	$26	+$7	53% 6903-6063 (12966)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kingsavg 54¢	$19.19	$15.32	-$0.18	49% 1381-1418 (2799)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Kingsavg 53.8¢	$20.45	$15.03	-$5.42	45% 2387-2862 (5249)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Trail Blazersavg 47¢	$4.47	$4.47	+$0	37% 872-1456 (2328)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Kingsavg 60¢	$3	$1.98	-$1.03	49% 1915-2022 (3937)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Kingsavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.28	+$0.02	51% 487-460 (947)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,759.7

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$275.79

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$685.1660.7¢+$8.56

Kings$554.2952¢-$284.35

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,712.27

Value

$630.67

PnL

+$255.84

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

RN1ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$258.05

Value

$294.08

PnL

+$36.03

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$187.6138.3¢+$42.34

Kings$70.4458.2¢-$6.31

justaluckydudeCTR

Kings

Invested

$220.63

Value

$210.66

PnL

-$9.97

Record

45%

430-535 (965)

takeormake

Trail Blazers

Invested

$148.81

Value

$192.11

PnL

+$56.45

Record

57%

3443-2562 (6005)

Anon455

Trail Blazers

Invested

$134.64

Value

$143.82

PnL

+$9.18

Record

49%

374-384 (758)

6512395314597884CTR

Kings

Invested

$108

Value

$106

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

3702-3662 (7364)

micky456CTR

Kings

Invested

$151.54

Value

$70.49

PnL

-$10.05

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

38791873984189<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$31.68

Value

$33.84

PnL

+$2.16

Record

48%

2982-3276 (6258)

cigarettes<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$19

Value

$26

PnL

+$7

Record

53%

6903-6063 (12966)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$19.19

Value

$15.32

PnL

-$0.18

Record

49%

1381-1418 (2799)

suntoriCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$20.45

Value

$15.03

PnL

-$5.42

Record

45%

2387-2862 (5249)

topdogbigboi<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4.47

Value

$4.47

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$1.03

Record

49%

1915-2022 (3937)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

487-460 (947)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.