Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Trail Blazers, while the market favors Kings (61%). 10 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-13.5)

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (59%) · Trail Blazers at 40¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Trail Blazers40¢Kings60¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 59%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$80.55

Smart Money Entry

45.2¢ → 39.5¢

-13% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

10 of 17 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 61%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers40%

Kings61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,873

Combined PnL+$84.98

Trail Blazers10 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,525

Combined PnL-$4.43

Kings — 41%Trail Blazers — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Kings) and the top 1000 (10 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

ctrTrail Blazers 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedKings 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Kingsavg 53.1¢	$462.87	$500.83	+$37.96	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
RN1	Kingsavg 52.4¢	$434.29	$476.67	+$42.38	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Trail Blazersavg 48.9¢	$339.01	$325.97	-$13.04	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
AN Anon455CTR	Trail Blazersavg 46.5¢	$212.91	$226.55	+$13.64	50% 368-373 (741)
38 38791873984189CTR	Trail Blazersavg 39¢	$156	$184	+$28	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 47¢	$194.01	$175.53	-$18.48	44% 422-532 (954)
TA takeormakeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 45¢	$131.4	$111.4	-$20	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 41¢	$70.54	$79.14	+$8.6	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Kingsavg 50¢	$34.61	$39.8	+$5.19	41% 146-213 (359)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 39¢	$27.69	$32.66	+$4.97	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Kingsavg 59¢	$33.2	$32.52	-$0.68	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Kingsavg 53.9¢	$12.39	$13.23	+$0.83	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
SU suntori<$100	Kingsavg 55¢	$9.76	$10.2	+$0.44	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 41¢	$8.2	$9.2	+$1	55% 441-368 (809)
MI micky456<$100	Kingsavg 64¢	$10.54	$8.33	-$1.15	47% 489-544 (1033)
VeryLucky888CTR	Trail Blazersavg 41¢	$205	$3.49	-$9.37	53% 1186-1032 (2218)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.3	+$0.25	40% 614-914 (1528)

Flaznorp

Kings

Invested

$462.87

Value

$500.83

PnL

+$37.96

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

RN1

Kings

Invested

$434.29

Value

$476.67

PnL

+$42.38

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$339.01

Value

$325.97

PnL

-$13.04

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

Anon455CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$212.91

Value

$226.55

PnL

+$13.64

Record

50%

368-373 (741)

38791873984189CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$156

Value

$184

PnL

+$28

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

justaluckydudeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$194.01

Value

$175.53

PnL

-$18.48

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

takeormakeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$131.4

Value

$111.4

PnL

-$20

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$70.54

Value

$79.14

PnL

+$8.6

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

NatoAlfista<$100

Kings

Invested

$34.61

Value

$39.8

PnL

+$5.19

Record

41%

146-213 (359)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$27.69

Value

$32.66

PnL

+$4.97

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

6512395314597884<$100

Kings

Invested

$33.2

Value

$32.52

PnL

-$0.68

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

ferdinand2<$100

Kings

Invested

$12.39

Value

$13.23

PnL

+$0.83

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

suntori<$100

Kings

Invested

$9.76

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$0.44

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$8.2

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$1

Record

55%

441-368 (809)

micky456<$100

Kings

Invested

$10.54

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$1.15

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

VeryLucky888CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$205

Value

$3.49

PnL

-$9.37

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.25

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

10 of 17 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 61%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Kings) and the top 1000 (10 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

ctrTrail Blazers 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedKings 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.