Trail Blazers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 118.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$53.16

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 99.5¢

+71% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,846

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Over4 traders

Total Value$23.1

Total Shares3,557

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 59.4¢	$2.5K	$3.2K	+$1.2K	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Underavg 52¢	$300	$574.04	+$274.04	45% 123-151 (274)
RN1<$100	Underavg 57¢	$26.51	$24.19	-$2.33	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 48¢	$22.15	$24	+$1.85	54% 1217-1056 (2273)
MI micky456CTR	Overavg 40.7¢	$930.5	$11.44	-$919.06	48% 505-558 (1063)
dips.CTR	Overavg 40.7¢	$476.12	$5.85	-$470.27	47% 899-997 (1896)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 49.9¢	$41.33	$5.7	-$35.63	37% 872-1456 (2328)
JO JoeyAroyyOO<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.6	+$0.1	49% 127-130 (257)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$8.4	$0.11	-$8.3	39% 302-468 (770)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$2,539.15

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Under

Invested

$300

Value

$574.04

PnL

+$274.04

Record

45%

123-151 (274)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$26.51

Value

$24.19

PnL

-$2.33

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$22.15

Value

$24

PnL

+$1.85

Record

54%

1217-1056 (2273)

micky456CTR

Over

Invested

$930.5

Value

$11.44

PnL

-$919.06

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

dips.CTR

Over

Invested

$476.12

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$470.27

Record

47%

899-997 (1896)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.33

Value

$5.7

PnL

-$35.63

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

JoeyAroyyOO<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

127-130 (257)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.4

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$8.3

Record

39%

302-468 (770)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.