Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Suns, while the market favors Trail Blazers (92%). 11 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (79%) · Suns at 8.5¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 5

Trail Blazers92¢Suns8¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.5K

Combined PnL

-$629.06

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 8.5¢

-84% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers92%

Suns9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns11 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares29,361

Combined PnL-$646.49

Trail Blazers3 traders

Total Value$383.13

Total Shares670

Combined PnL+$17.43

Suns — 79%Trail Blazers — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (3 on Suns) disagree here.

whaleSuns 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSuns 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Sunsavg 53¢	$11.7K	$11.7K	+$0	53% 642-565 (1207)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Sunsavg 52¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$31.27	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Sunsavg 56.9¢	$765.55	$713.53	-$422.25	50% 4275-4242 (8517)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 46.4¢	$663.91	$665.45	+$1.54	40% 1398-2089 (3487)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 46.4¢	$403.91	$400.46	-$3.46
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 52¢	$259.99	$264.99	+$5
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Sunsavg 52¢	$520	$530	+$10	56% 7944-6252 (14196)
VeryLucky888	Trail Blazersavg 47¢	$461.02	$225.83	+$5.89	58% 45668-33040 (78708)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Sunsavg 55.2¢	$229.15	$219.85	-$9.3	51% 1843-1768 (3611)
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 67.5¢	$122.4	$143.2	+$20.8	51% 24552-23218 (47770)
GA GaditimaCTR	Sunsavg 51¢	$108.85	$113.12	+$4.27	48% 7141-7832 (14973)
38 38791873984189CTR	Sunsavg 42.3¢	$215.72	$42.79	-$170.76	48% 59829-63853 (123682)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Sunsavg 52¢	$34.02	$34.67	+$0.65	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
3C 0x3ca9...424aCTR	Sunsavg 47.4¢	$144.7	$28.7	-$82.5	50% 4211-4243 (8454)
TA takeormake<$100	Trail Blazersavg 77.9¢	$23.37	$14.1	-$9.27	53% 4720-4228 (8948)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Sunsavg 52.2¢	$9.93	$2.57	-$7.36	53% 11951-10480 (22431)
balthazarCTR<$100	Sunsavg 14¢	$1.3	$0.79	-$0.51	53% 29493-26352 (55845)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Suns

Invested

$11,672.71

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

642-565 (1207)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Suns

Invested

$2,040.7

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$31.27

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Suns

Invested

$765.55

Value

$713.53

PnL

-$422.25

Record

50%

4275-4242 (8517)

NM-PARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$663.91

Value

$665.45

PnL

+$1.54

Record

40%

1398-2089 (3487)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$403.9146.4¢-$3.46

Suns$259.9952¢+$5

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Suns

Invested

$520

Value

$530

PnL

+$10

Record

56%

7944-6252 (14196)

VeryLucky888

Trail Blazers

Invested

$461.02

Value

$225.83

PnL

+$5.89

Record

58%

45668-33040 (78708)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Suns

Invested

$229.15

Value

$219.85

PnL

-$9.3

Record

51%

1843-1768 (3611)

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$122.4

Value

$143.2

PnL

+$20.8

Record

51%

24552-23218 (47770)

GaditimaCTR

Suns

Invested

$108.85

Value

$113.12

PnL

+$4.27

Record

48%

7141-7832 (14973)

38791873984189CTR

Suns

Invested

$215.72

Value

$42.79

PnL

-$170.76

Record

48%

59829-63853 (123682)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$34.02

Value

$34.67

PnL

+$0.65

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

0x3ca9...424aCTR

Suns

Invested

$144.7

Value

$28.7

PnL

-$82.5

Record

50%

4211-4243 (8454)

takeormake<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$23.37

Value

$14.1

PnL

-$9.27

Record

53%

4720-4228 (8948)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$9.93

Value

$2.57

PnL

-$7.36

Record

53%

11951-10480 (22431)

balthazarCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$0.51

Record

53%

29493-26352 (55845)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (3 on Suns) disagree here.

whaleSuns 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSuns 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.9%

8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$907.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

1007.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.