Trail Blazers vs. Suns

18 of 42 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (43%) · Trail Blazers at 60¢ · $261K held · ended Nov 5

Trail Blazers60¢Suns40¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 43%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$260.6K

Combined PnL

-$213.54

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 59.5¢

+3% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

18 of 42 top traders (43%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers60%

Suns41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers18 traders

Total Value$149.7K

Total Shares259,352

Combined PnL-$452.69

Suns24 traders

Total Value$102.0K

Total Shares235,625

Combined PnL+$239.15

Trail Blazers — 43%Suns — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrail Blazers 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpSuns 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 61% · 23

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 63% · 24

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EU Eugycom	Trail Blazersavg 58¢	$125.0K	$73.1K	+$628.96	— 11-6 (17)
nigiri99CTR	Sunsavg 43.2¢	$35.0K	$33.2K	$-1.8K	46% 8424-9994 (18418)
EdZachary	Trail Blazersavg 56¢	$24.7K	$25.3K	+$649.2	43% 114-151 (265)
CH ch27er	Trail Blazersavg 59.5¢	$25.5K	$23.4K	$-2.2K	65% 24-13 (37)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Sunsavg 41.9¢	$17.9K	$17.5K	-$400	53% 642-565 (1207)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Sunsavg 44¢	$13.8K	$16.2K	+$2.4K	55% 6202-5084 (11286)
AP AppleTiiime	Trail Blazersavg 57¢	$14.2K	$14.6K	+$375	55% 60-49 (109)
drainedandpoorCTR	Sunsavg 42¢	$12.6K	$12.4K	-$150	48% 637-679 (1316)
Greedo	Trail Blazersavg 58¢	$7.2K	$7.4K	+$125	48% 188-202 (390)
0X 0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR	Sunsavg 42¢	$10.6K	$4.4K	-$52.8	37% 512-860 (1372)
57 0x57db...85efARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 54.6¢	$4.8K	$3.9K	+$100.04	—
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 54.6¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$176.34
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 44.4¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$76.3
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Sunsavg 43¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$361.52	50% 4274-4238 (8512)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Sunsavg 44.5¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$134.99	51% 4652-4485 (9137)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 44.5¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$195.58
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 57.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$60.59
OM omnibus-076daa	Trail Blazersavg 59.2¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$101.35	50% 20843-21072 (41915)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Sunsavg 46.2¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$252.59	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
HO HomeRunHazard	Trail Blazersavg 57¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$28.21	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
EN ENDBOSSLLCCTR	Sunsavg 45.2¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$208.91	43% 305-402 (707)
VeryLucky888CTR	Sunsavg 41¢	$4.5K	$1.6K	+$98.92	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
KateBollingerCTR	Sunsavg 41¢	$6.1K	$1.6K	+$195.86	68% 1769-829 (2598)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Sunsavg 44.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$109.67	67% 3670-1848 (5518)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Sunsavg 50.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$1.25	57% 19099-14121 (33220)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Sunsavg 47.2¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$169.62	46% 418-496 (914)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Sunsavg 46.1¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$142.6	46% 1416-1675 (3091)
DV dv-pm	Trail Blazersavg 59.2¢	$914.92	$896.1	+$7.73	49% 3309-3463 (6772)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Sunsavg 42.1¢	$850	$890.84	+$40.84	52% 14262-13030 (27292)

Eugycom

Trail Blazers

Invested

$124,999.79

Value

$73.1K

PnL

+$628.96

Record

—

11-6 (17)

nigiri99CTR

Suns

Invested

$35,003.12

Value

$33.2K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

46%

8424-9994 (18418)

EdZachary

Trail Blazers

Invested

$24,691.25

Value

$25.3K

PnL

+$649.2

Record

43%

114-151 (265)

ch27er

Trail Blazers

Invested

$25,520.69

Value

$23.4K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

65%

24-13 (37)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Suns

Invested

$17,867.8

Value

$17.5K

PnL

-$400

Record

53%

642-565 (1207)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Suns

Invested

$13,847.91

Value

$16.2K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

55%

6202-5084 (11286)

AppleTiiime

Trail Blazers

Invested

$14,249.99

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$375

Record

55%

60-49 (109)

drainedandpoorCTR

Suns

Invested

$12,600

Value

$12.4K

PnL

-$150

Record

48%

637-679 (1316)

Greedo

Trail Blazers

Invested

$7,249.99

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$125

Record

48%

188-202 (390)

0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR

Suns

Invested

$10,559

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$52.8

Record

37%

512-860 (1372)

0x57db...85efARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4,779.66

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$100.04

Record

—

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$1,954.4354.6¢+$176.34

Suns$1,908.9744.4¢-$76.3

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Suns

Invested

$3,459.35

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$361.52

Record

50%

4274-4238 (8512)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$3,915.4

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$134.99

Record

51%

4652-4485 (9137)

Both legs:

Suns$2,173.6544.5¢-$195.58

Trail Blazers$1,741.7457.5¢+$60.59

omnibus-076daa

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,204.07

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$101.35

Record

50%

20843-21072 (41915)

FlaznorpCTR

Suns

Invested

$2,278.21

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$252.59

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

HomeRunHazard

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,774.94

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$28.21

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

ENDBOSSLLCCTR

Suns

Invested

$1,507.58

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$208.91

Record

43%

305-402 (707)

VeryLucky888CTR

Suns

Invested

$4,459.25

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$98.92

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

KateBollingerCTR

Suns

Invested

$6,099.54

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$195.86

Record

68%

1769-829 (2598)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Suns

Invested

$1,503.67

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$109.67

Record

67%

3670-1848 (5518)

BillBenter2026CTR

Suns

Invested

$1,133.19

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.25

Record

57%

19099-14121 (33220)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Suns

Invested

$1,283.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$169.62

Record

46%

418-496 (914)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Suns

Invested

$1,228.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$142.6

Record

46%

1416-1675 (3091)

dv-pm

Trail Blazers

Invested

$914.92

Value

$896.1

PnL

+$7.73

Record

49%

3309-3463 (6772)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Suns

Invested

$850

Value

$890.84

PnL

+$40.84

Record

52%

14262-13030 (27292)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

18 of 42 top traders (43%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrail Blazers 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpSuns 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 61% · 23

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 63% · 24

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.