Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Pistons (52%). 12 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pistons (-2.5)

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (71%) · 76ers at 49¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 5

Pistons52¢76ers48¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.4K

Combined PnL

-$166.52

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 48.5¢

-1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons52%

76ers49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers12 traders

Total Value$19.0K

Total Shares39,568

Combined PnL-$394.08

Pistons5 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares16,067

Combined PnL+$227.55

76ers — 71%Pistons — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale76ers 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpPistons 100% · 2

Diverging

ctr76ers 64% · 14

Aligned

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 100076ers 69% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	76ersavg 49¢	$15.3K	$15.0K	-$312.14	48% 303-327 (630)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584	Pistonsavg 49¢	$10.0K	$5.2K	+$250	54% 199-170 (369)
AY ay118	Pistonsavg 51¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$13.11	43% 45-60 (105)
73 739633786	Pistonsavg 52.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$34.18	44% 382-483 (865)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	76ersavg 49.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$13.69	54% 18039-15167 (33206)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 49.2¢	$655.61	$645.77	-$9.84
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 48.6¢	$398.4	$421.93	+$23.53
SE sentrioCTR	76ersavg 50.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$42.14	50% 25481-25189 (50670)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	76ersavg 49.3¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$17.77	60% 4421-2917 (7338)
FL FlaznorpCTR	76ersavg 49¢	$792.46	$775.95	-$16.51	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
VeryLucky888CTR	76ersavg 49.9¢	$685.92	$455.06	-$7.89	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
HE Herdonia	Pistonsavg 48.9¢	$421.74	$437.58	+$15.84	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
NM NM-PCTR	76ersavg 49.5¢	$346.5	$336	-$10.5	40% 1343-2035 (3378)
RN1CTR	76ersavg 48.5¢	$242.5	$240	-$2.5	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
PU purplegatto	Pistonsavg 55.2¢	$172.91	$159.63	-$17.22	49% 6203-6345 (12548)
HI hi774cCTR	76ersavg 46¢	$131.68	$137.4	+$15.74	50% 4959-4888 (9847)
HRTradingCTR<$100	76ersavg 49.2¢	$5.54	$5.4	-$0.14	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
IA ianf2026CTR<$100	76ersavg 50¢	$5	$2.43	-$0.08	49% 95-99 (194)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	76ersavg 49.2¢	$2.46	$2.4	-$0.06	51% 4648-4477 (9125)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	76ersavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.4	-$0.1	52% 8576-7821 (16397)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

76ers

Invested

$15,294.76

Value

$15.0K

PnL

-$312.14

Record

48%

303-327 (630)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584

Pistons

Invested

$10,000

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$250

Record

54%

199-170 (369)

ay118

Pistons

Invested

$1,337.19

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.11

Record

43%

45-60 (105)

739633786

Pistons

Invested

$1,222.67

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$34.18

Record

44%

382-483 (865)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$1,054.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$13.69

Record

54%

18039-15167 (33206)

Both legs:

76ers$655.6149.2¢-$9.84

Pistons$398.448.6¢+$23.53

sentrioCTR

76ers

Invested

$1,098.05

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$42.14

Record

50%

25481-25189 (50670)

SunlineTickerCTR

76ers

Invested

$1,045.48

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$17.77

Record

60%

4421-2917 (7338)

FlaznorpCTR

76ers

Invested

$792.46

Value

$775.95

PnL

-$16.51

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

VeryLucky888CTR

76ers

Invested

$685.92

Value

$455.06

PnL

-$7.89

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

Herdonia

Pistons

Invested

$421.74

Value

$437.58

PnL

+$15.84

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

NM-PCTR

76ers

Invested

$346.5

Value

$336

PnL

-$10.5

Record

40%

1343-2035 (3378)

RN1CTR

76ers

Invested

$242.5

Value

$240

PnL

-$2.5

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

purplegatto

Pistons

Invested

$172.91

Value

$159.63

PnL

-$17.22

Record

49%

6203-6345 (12548)

hi774cCTR

76ers

Invested

$131.68

Value

$137.4

PnL

+$15.74

Record

50%

4959-4888 (9847)

HRTradingCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$5.54

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$0.14

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

ianf2026CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.08

Record

49%

95-99 (194)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$2.46

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.06

Record

51%

4648-4477 (9125)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

8576-7821 (16397)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale76ers 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpPistons 100% · 2

Diverging

ctr76ers 64% · 14

Aligned

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 100076ers 69% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.