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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.

76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5

Resolved Under. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Over 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,421

Combined PnL+$175.4

Over5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,446

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
73 739633786	Underavg 50¢	$344.5	$689	-$10.33	43% 407-532 (939)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 52.8¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.7K	54% 18314-15419 (33733)
NM NM-P	Underavg 50.6¢	$260.02	$426.19	+$166.17	64% 10122-5677 (15799)
nigiri99	Underavg 50.2¢	$129.64	$258	+$1.29	46% 8704-10375 (19079)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Underavg 57¢	$522.38	$186.58	-$20.51	50% 4491-4414 (8905)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57¢	$106.35	$186.58	+$80.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 30¢	$100.74	—	-$100.74
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 37.7¢	$351.44	—	-$351.44	51% 26809-25398 (52207)
HE Herdonia<$100	Underavg 51.1¢	$19.35	$37.85	+$18.5	51% 3835-3755 (7590)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Overavg 49.2¢	$293.94	—	+$26.86	50% 549-542 (1091)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 54.1¢	$160.66	—	-$140.65	58% 47297-34106 (81403)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$5	-$0.17	50% 26276-25912 (52188)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$5	-$0.05	52% 8885-8068 (16953)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 49.7¢	$774.74	—	-$181.68	56% 8434-6558 (14992)

Invested

$344.5

Value

$689

PnL

-$10.33

Record

43%

407-532 (939)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Invested

$1,659.46

Value

—

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

54%

18314-15419 (33733)

Invested

$260.02

Value

$426.19

PnL

+$166.17

Record

64%

10122-5677 (15799)

Invested

$129.64

Value

$258

PnL

+$1.29

Record

46%

8704-10375 (19079)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Invested

$522.38

Value

$186.58

PnL

-$20.51

Record

50%

4491-4414 (8905)

Both legs:

Under$106.3557¢+$80.23

Over$100.7430¢-$100.74

Invested

$351.44

Value

—

PnL

-$351.44

Record

51%

26809-25398 (52207)

Invested

$19.35

Value

$37.85

PnL

+$18.5

Record

51%

3835-3755 (7590)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Invested

$293.94

Value

—

PnL

+$26.86

Record

50%

549-542 (1091)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$160.66

Value

—

PnL

-$140.65

Record

58%

47297-34106 (81403)

Invested

$2.4

Value

$5

PnL

-$0.17

Record

50%

26276-25912 (52188)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$5

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

8885-8068 (16953)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Invested

$774.74

Value

—

PnL

-$181.68

Record

56%

8434-6558 (14992)

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe9900a9b...61a673

Slug

nba-phi-cle-2026-11-06-total-229pt5

Traders in this Market

739633786

Under — $689

HomeRunHazard

Over — $0

NM-P

Under — $426.19

nigiri99

Under — $258

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Arbitrage — excluded

Flaznorp

Over — $0

Herdonia

Under — $37.85

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Over — $0

VeryLucky888

Over — $0

sentrio

Under — $5

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