Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (77%). 8 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (47%) · Under at 23¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Over77¢Under23¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 47%

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

-$199.77

Smart Money Entry

44.2¢ → 23¢

-48% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 17 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Over 77%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares10,978

Combined PnL-$300.81

Over9 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,083

Combined PnL+$101.04

Under — 47%Over — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 46.6¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$199.88	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Underavg 45¢	$872.73	$843.69	-$29.04	49% 115-122 (237)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 73.8¢	$785.85	$796.17	+$10.32	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 53.5¢	$415.07	$415.21	+$0.14	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
BI biying88888	Overavg 55¢	$399.85	$410.76	+$10.91	47% 242-268 (510)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 45¢	$325.27	$321.54	-$3.72	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
RN1	Overavg 60.1¢	$242.98	$307.61	+$64.63	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
NM NM-P	Overavg 54.3¢	$290.5	$296.63	+$6.13	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
GC GC-P	Overavg 54.4¢	$516.78	$291.98	+$11.09	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 45¢	$284.18	$274.91	-$9.26	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 26.7¢	$220.42	$195.51	-$24.91	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 69¢	$182.33	$179.57	-$2.77	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 30.7¢	$83.52	$62.56	-$20.96	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 35.2¢	$37.49	$24.46	-$13.03	57% 17059-13037 (30096)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 54¢	$10.8	$11.3	+$0.5	56% 8773-6961 (15734)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$9.43	$9.43	+$0	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 55¢	$7.72	$7.82	+$0.1	52% 9515-8627 (18142)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$3,033.91

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$199.88

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Under

Invested

$872.73

Value

$843.69

PnL

-$29.04

Record

49%

115-122 (237)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$785.85

Value

$796.17

PnL

+$10.32

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$415.07

Value

$415.21

PnL

+$0.14

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

biying88888

Over

Invested

$399.85

Value

$410.76

PnL

+$10.91

Record

47%

242-268 (510)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$325.27

Value

$321.54

PnL

-$3.72

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

RN1

Over

Invested

$242.98

Value

$307.61

PnL

+$64.63

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$290.5

Value

$296.63

PnL

+$6.13

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$516.78

Value

$291.98

PnL

+$11.09

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$284.18

Value

$274.91

PnL

-$9.26

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$220.42

Value

$195.51

PnL

-$24.91

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$182.33

Value

$179.57

PnL

-$2.77

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$83.52

Value

$62.56

PnL

-$20.96

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.49

Value

$24.46

PnL

-$13.03

Record

57%

17059-13037 (30096)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$10.8

Value

$11.3

PnL

+$0.5

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.43

Value

$9.43

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$7.72

Value

$7.82

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 17 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Over 77%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.9%

23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$301.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

401.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.