Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 87¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Over13¢Under87¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$102.57

Smart Money Entry

62.3¢ → 86.5¢

+39% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 20 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over13%

Under87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,308

Combined PnL+$611.35

Over9 traders

Total Value$948.96

Total Shares3,334

Combined PnL-$508.78

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 58% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Under 53% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 74.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$34.67	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
RN1	Underavg 66.1¢	$580.66	$589.46	+$13.81	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 42.4¢	$908.86	$501.38	-$268.08	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Under leg	Underavg 71.7¢	$283.08	$337.72	+$47.13
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.4¢	$478.86	$163.66	-$315.2
LI LightParadox	Underavg 44.2¢	$194.78	$377.06	+$182.28	31% 441-967 (1408)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Underavg 46.5¢	$200	$368.13	+$168.13	48% 74-80 (154)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 48¢	$283.86	$319.34	+$35.48	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 42.4¢	$132.56	$267.01	+$134.45	32% 444-952 (1396)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 53.6¢	$257.12	$224.65	-$30.14	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 47.9¢	$347.05	$223.84	-$123.21	46% 200-233 (433)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$84.71	$133.46	+$48.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.9¢	$262.34	$90.38	-$171.96
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 14¢	$160.58	$166.31	+$5.73	52% 235-217 (452)
VE Venusian	Underavg 44¢	$79.46	$154.41	+$74.95	31% 444-971 (1415)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 41¢	$68.08	$77.06	+$8.98	31% 438-969 (1407)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$74.43	$74.45	+$0.03	53% 305-275 (580)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 34.8¢	$179.47	$67.01	-$112.46	39% 233-367 (600)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 41.9¢	$226.92	$50.83	-$74.77	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 64¢	$34.23	$41.63	+$7.41	36% 410-719 (1129)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 58.8¢	$26.49	$39.22	+$12.73	49% 973-998 (1971)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 52.2¢	$2.0K	$31.53	-$323.53	55% 843-701 (1544)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 77.3¢	$132.43	$22.55	-$26.27	49% 786-829 (1615)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$12.59	$7.73	-$2.02	55% 729-596 (1325)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$14.21	$7.1	-$7.11	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 42¢	$2.33	$2.55	+$0.22	52% 1914-1760 (3674)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,556.65

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$34.67

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

RN1

Under

Invested

$580.66

Value

$589.46

PnL

+$13.81

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$908.86

Value

$501.38

PnL

-$268.08

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Under$283.0871.7¢+$47.13

Over$478.8642.4¢-$315.2

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$194.78

Value

$377.06

PnL

+$182.28

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$368.13

PnL

+$168.13

Record

48%

74-80 (154)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$283.86

Value

$319.34

PnL

+$35.48

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$132.56

Value

$267.01

PnL

+$134.45

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$257.12

Value

$224.65

PnL

-$30.14

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$347.05

Value

$223.84

PnL

-$123.21

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

Both legs:

Under$84.7153¢+$48.75

Over$262.3447.9¢-$171.96

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$160.58

Value

$166.31

PnL

+$5.73

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$79.46

Value

$154.41

PnL

+$74.95

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$68.08

Value

$77.06

PnL

+$8.98

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$74.43

Value

$74.45

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$179.47

Value

$67.01

PnL

-$112.46

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$226.92

Value

$50.83

PnL

-$74.77

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$34.23

Value

$41.63

PnL

+$7.41

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$26.49

Value

$39.22

PnL

+$12.73

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$2,012.21

Value

$31.53

PnL

-$323.53

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$132.43

Value

$22.55

PnL

-$26.27

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.59

Value

$7.73

PnL

-$2.02

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.21

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$7.11

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.22

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 20 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 58% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Under 53% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.