Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5

9 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 81¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$300.82

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 81¢

+39% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 21 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares4,975

Combined PnL+$234.3

Over12 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,377

Combined PnL-$535.12

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 61.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$86.98	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
AN Anon455	Underavg 56¢	$821.84	$675.57	-$146.26	46% 200-233 (433)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 54¢	$2.1K	$612.93	-$197.67	55% 843-701 (1544)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 65.9¢	$529.58	$594.51	+$64.93	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
LI Limousin	Underavg 39.6¢	$231.99	$465.21	+$242.55	31% 438-969 (1407)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 65.7¢	$357.12	$338.84	-$15.64	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 31.7¢	$414.3	$254.46	-$159.84	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Overavg 46.9¢	$167.85	$118.59	+$16.15	32% 444-952 (1396)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$48.52	$90.31	+$54.14
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.9¢	$66.28	$28.28	-$38
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 42¢	$84.21	$108.21	+$24	36% 410-719 (1129)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 44¢	$26.98	$49.05	+$22.07	31% 444-971 (1415)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 65.4¢	$67.11	$47.2	-$19.9	49% 786-829 (1615)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$99	$33	-$66	63% 291-169 (460)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$78	$31	-$47	39% 233-367 (600)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$54	$20	-$34	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$54	$20	-$34	45% 436-533 (969)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Overavg 54.1¢	$14.07	$14.04	-$0.03	53% 305-275 (580)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$27	$10	-$17	42% 282-393 (675)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 69.5¢	$12.15	$9.69	-$2.47	55% 729-596 (1325)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 32.7¢	$15.22	$8.31	-$4.41	49% 973-998 (1971)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$5.82	$5.54	-$0.28	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$4.3	$5.4	+$1.1	31% 242-544 (786)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 44¢	$2.2	$4.23	+$2.02	31% 441-967 (1408)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,434.76

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$86.98

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$821.84

Value

$675.57

PnL

-$146.26

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$2,084.61

Value

$612.93

PnL

-$197.67

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$529.58

Value

$594.51

PnL

+$64.93

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$231.99

Value

$465.21

PnL

+$242.55

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$357.12

Value

$338.84

PnL

-$15.64

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$414.3

Value

$254.46

PnL

-$159.84

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$167.85

Value

$118.59

PnL

+$16.15

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

Both legs:

Under$48.5243¢+$54.14

Over$66.2846.9¢-$38

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$84.21

Value

$108.21

PnL

+$24

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$26.98

Value

$49.05

PnL

+$22.07

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$67.11

Value

$47.2

PnL

-$19.9

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$99

Value

$33

PnL

-$66

Record

63%

291-169 (460)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$78

Value

$31

PnL

-$47

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54

Value

$20

PnL

-$34

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54

Value

$20

PnL

-$34

Record

45%

436-533 (969)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.07

Value

$14.04

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27

Value

$10

PnL

-$17

Record

42%

282-393 (675)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$12.15

Value

$9.69

PnL

-$2.47

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.22

Value

$8.31

PnL

-$4.41

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.82

Value

$5.54

PnL

-$0.28

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.3

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$1.1

Record

31%

242-544 (786)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$2.2

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$2.02

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 21 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.