Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5

6 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 75¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 12

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.7K

Combined PnL

$4.5K

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 75¢

+36% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 20 top traders (30%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares15,504

Combined PnL+$2.9K

Over14 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares13,334

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luckycat888888	Underavg 54.9¢	$6.1K	$8.2K	+$2.0K	17% 20-98 (118)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 45¢	$4.3K	$6.0K	+$1.7K	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
RN1	Underavg 60.8¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$487.24	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 73¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$356.09	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Under leg	Underavg 73¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$77.59
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.4¢	$794.01	$360.33	-$433.68
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 53.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$76.31	46% 200-233 (433)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.6¢	$559.01	$698.31	+$139.3
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.7¢	$503.99	$441	-$62.99
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 46¢	$919.77	$539.87	-$379.91	53% 305-275 (580)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 55.6¢	$2.5K	$486.6	+$104.02	55% 843-701 (1544)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 16.6¢	$180.6	$470.39	+$289.79	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 32.8¢	$124.28	$276.98	+$152.7	31% 441-967 (1408)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eARB<$100	Overavg 36.1¢	$251.28	$222.8	-$28.48	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
└ Under leg	Underavg 70¢	$109.9	$113.04	+$3.14
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.1¢	$141.38	$109.76	-$31.62
MA MadridTime	Underavg 37¢	$66.28	$130.77	+$64.49	32% 444-952 (1396)
VE Venusian	Underavg 37¢	$66.28	$130.77	+$64.49	31% 444-971 (1415)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$68.09	$93.25	+$25.16	40% 438-657 (1095)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$63	$88.2	+$25.2	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 35¢	$114.17	$88.07	-$26.1	39% 233-367 (600)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$94	$45	-$49	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$24.48	$30.24	+$5.76	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$52.38	$26.19	-$26.19	45% 436-533 (969)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 39.5¢	$51.99	$24.48	+$1.24	49% 786-829 (1615)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 34.8¢	$19.47	$21.57	+$2.09	36% 410-719 (1129)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Overavg 33.4¢	$391.86	$19.35	-$22.51	63% 291-169 (460)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 10.3¢	$3.18	$8.32	+$5.14	49% 973-998 (1971)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 57.5¢	$14.36	$4.08	-$4.4	55% 729-596 (1325)

luckycat888888

Under

Invested

$6,137.16

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

17%

20-98 (118)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$4,259.62

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,767.75

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$487.24

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,820.33

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$356.09

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Under$1,026.3373¢+$77.59

Over$794.0147.4¢-$433.68

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,063

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$76.31

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

Both legs:

Under$559.0153.6¢+$139.3

Over$503.9937.7¢-$62.99

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$919.77

Value

$539.87

PnL

-$379.91

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$2,531.86

Value

$486.6

PnL

+$104.02

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$180.6

Value

$470.39

PnL

+$289.79

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$124.28

Value

$276.98

PnL

+$152.7

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eARB<$100

Over

Invested

$251.28

Value

$222.8

PnL

-$28.48

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

Both legs:

Under$109.970¢+$3.14

Over$141.3836.1¢-$31.62

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$66.28

Value

$130.77

PnL

+$64.49

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$66.28

Value

$130.77

PnL

+$64.49

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$68.09

Value

$93.25

PnL

+$25.16

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63

Value

$88.2

PnL

+$25.2

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$114.17

Value

$88.07

PnL

-$26.1

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$94

Value

$45

PnL

-$49

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.48

Value

$30.24

PnL

+$5.76

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.38

Value

$26.19

PnL

-$26.19

Record

45%

436-533 (969)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.99

Value

$24.48

PnL

+$1.24

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.47

Value

$21.57

PnL

+$2.09

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

suitcase6628CTR

Over

Invested

$391.86

Value

$19.35

PnL

-$22.51

Record

63%

291-169 (460)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.18

Value

$8.32

PnL

+$5.14

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.36

Value

$4.08

PnL

-$4.4

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 20 top traders (30%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.