Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 227.5

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 63¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$137.62

Smart Money Entry

42.8¢ → 62.5¢

+46% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 19 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,164

Combined PnL+$524.53

Over8 traders

Total Value$410.73

Total Shares1,994

Combined PnL-$662.16

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 52.8¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$220.13	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.8¢	$774.27	$961.14	+$186.88
└ Over leg	Overavg 31.2¢	$316.56	$349.81	+$33.25
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Overavg 62.2¢	$1.0K	$640.33	-$369.01	53% 305-275 (580)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.2¢	$832.49	$462.12	-$370.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 65¢	$176.86	$178.22	+$1.36
AN Anon455	Underavg 39.3¢	$481.83	$622.2	+$140.37	46% 200-233 (433)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 52.4¢	$2.5K	$382.53	-$203.37	55% 843-701 (1544)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.4¢	$362.93	$221.67	-$186.57
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.8¢	$124.87	$160.86	-$16.8
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 49.1¢	$220.67	$318.48	+$97.81	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 52.4¢	$244.52	$263.85	+$19.33	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 60.8¢	$849.49	$251.51	-$597.98	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 36.1¢	$72.76	$165.33	+$92.57	32% 444-952 (1396)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 41¢	$99.78	$138.05	+$38.27	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
LI Limousin	Underavg 35¢	$52.64	$123.33	+$70.69	31% 438-969 (1407)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 43.6¢	$95.78	$102.77	+$30.02	49% 786-829 (1615)
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 38¢	$100.58	$97.98	-$2.59	36% 410-719 (1129)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$66.28	$82.28	+$16	31% 441-967 (1408)
dips.<$100	Underavg 49¢	$39.2	$65.6	+$26.4	45% 436-533 (969)
SM smithagent<$100	Underavg 49¢	$20.58	$34.44	+$13.86	42% 282-393 (675)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 37.1¢	$47.84	$23.22	-$24.62	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$44.84	$21.24	-$23.6	63% 291-169 (460)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$47.17	$16.02	-$31.15	39% 233-367 (600)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 47.9¢	$13.49	$12.26	+$3.01	55% 729-596 (1325)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.23	-$0.07	31% 444-971 (1415)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$5.72	$1.98	-$3.74	49% 973-998 (1971)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 75¢	$3.75	$1.55	-$2.2	40% 438-657 (1095)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,090.83

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$220.13

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Under$774.2752.8¢+$186.88

Over$316.5631.2¢+$33.25

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,009.35

Value

$640.33

PnL

-$369.01

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

Both legs:

Over$832.4962.2¢-$370.37

Under$176.8665¢+$1.36

Anon455

Under

Invested

$481.83

Value

$622.2

PnL

+$140.37

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,479.89

Value

$382.53

PnL

-$203.37

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Both legs:

Over$362.9352.4¢-$186.57

Under$124.8752.8¢-$16.8

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$220.67

Value

$318.48

PnL

+$97.81

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$244.52

Value

$263.85

PnL

+$19.33

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$849.49

Value

$251.51

PnL

-$597.98

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$72.76

Value

$165.33

PnL

+$92.57

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$99.78

Value

$138.05

PnL

+$38.27

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$52.64

Value

$123.33

PnL

+$70.69

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$95.78

Value

$102.77

PnL

+$30.02

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$100.58

Value

$97.98

PnL

-$2.59

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.28

Value

$82.28

PnL

+$16

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$39.2

Value

$65.6

PnL

+$26.4

Record

45%

436-533 (969)

smithagent<$100

Under

Invested

$20.58

Value

$34.44

PnL

+$13.86

Record

42%

282-393 (675)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.84

Value

$23.22

PnL

-$24.62

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.84

Value

$21.24

PnL

-$23.6

Record

63%

291-169 (460)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.17

Value

$16.02

PnL

-$31.15

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.49

Value

$12.26

PnL

+$3.01

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$0.07

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.72

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$3.74

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$3.75

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$2.2

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 19 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.