Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 225.5

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (53%) · Under at 52¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over48¢Under52¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

43.9¢ → 52¢

+18% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,731

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Over7 traders

Total Value$690.79

Total Shares1,945

Combined PnL-$165.71

Under — 53%Over — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 42.2¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$731.12	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 44.9¢	$1.7K	$982.99	+$448.49	55% 843-701 (1544)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 78.2¢	$882.62	$603.83	-$278.8	46% 200-233 (433)
└ Over leg	Overavg 78.2¢	$632.94	$351.92	-$281.03
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$249.68	$251.91	+$2.23
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 36.2¢	$435.99	$343.42	-$92.57	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 68.5¢	$543.01	$238.07	-$233.27	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Over leg	Overavg 68.5¢	$259.01	$181.39	-$77.63
└ Under leg	Underavg 71¢	$77.39	$56.68	-$155.64
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 44¢	$190.47	$188.31	-$2.16	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 49¢	$80	$75.06	+$11.7	31% 441-967 (1408)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 49¢	$66.39	$70.45	+$4.06	32% 444-952 (1396)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Overavg 75.4¢	$108.54	$64.08	-$44.46	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 43.7¢	$75.12	$46.43	-$28.68	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 76¢	$68.4	$39.15	-$29.25	63% 291-169 (460)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 69.8¢	$30.32	$31.72	+$1.4	36% 410-719 (1129)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$10.78	$13.8	+$3.03	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 70¢	$12.01	$10.32	-$1.69	55% 729-596 (1325)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 43¢	$8.13	$9.83	+$1.7	31% 444-971 (1415)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 69¢	$3.45	$3.73	+$0.27	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 72¢	$3.6	$0.95	-$2.65	49% 786-829 (1615)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,272.14

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$731.12

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,728.58

Value

$982.99

PnL

+$448.49

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$882.62

Value

$603.83

PnL

-$278.8

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

Both legs:

Over$632.9478.2¢-$281.03

Under$249.6856¢+$2.23

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$435.99

Value

$343.42

PnL

-$92.57

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$543.01

Value

$238.07

PnL

-$233.27

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Over$259.0168.5¢-$77.63

Under$77.3971¢-$155.64

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$190.47

Value

$188.31

PnL

-$2.16

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$80

Value

$75.06

PnL

+$11.7

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$66.39

Value

$70.45

PnL

+$4.06

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Over

Invested

$108.54

Value

$64.08

PnL

-$44.46

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$75.12

Value

$46.43

PnL

-$28.68

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$68.4

Value

$39.15

PnL

-$29.25

Record

63%

291-169 (460)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.32

Value

$31.72

PnL

+$1.4

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.78

Value

$13.8

PnL

+$3.03

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.01

Value

$10.32

PnL

-$1.69

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$8.13

Value

$9.83

PnL

+$1.7

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.27

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$3.6

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$2.65

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.