Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 14 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 223.5

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (82%) · Under at 43¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 82%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$390.43

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 43¢

-20% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 17 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under14 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares6,111

Combined PnL-$601.07

Over3 traders

Total Value$626.11

Total Shares1,078

Combined PnL+$210.63

Under — 82%Over — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	-$321.67	53% 305-275 (580)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 72.2¢	$1.1K	$836.46	-$239	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 46.1¢	$802.13	$744.38	+$157.09	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.1¢	$288.09	$386.74	+$178.35
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.1¢	$378.91	$357.65	-$21.26
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 38.7¢	$1.4K	$577.58	+$185.93	55% 843-701 (1544)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 66.6¢	$251.66	$210.4	-$41.26	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Over leg	Overavg 66.6¢	$136.45	$150.68	+$14.23
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.1¢	$115.21	$59.73	-$55.49
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 43¢	$125.05	$126.5	+$1.45	31% 441-967 (1408)
SU suntoriCTR	Underavg 42¢	$104.76	$103.51	-$1.25	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 48.6¢	$99.55	$89.01	-$10.53	31% 438-969 (1407)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$58.22	$64.72	+$6.5	36% 410-719 (1129)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$33.16	$37.47	+$4.31
└ Under leg	Underavg 40¢	$25.06	$27.26	+$2.19
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 49.7¢	$69.43	$60.72	-$8.71	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$52.8	$47.85	-$4.95	39% 233-367 (600)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$33	$43.5	+$10.5	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
AN Anon455<$100	Overavg 26¢	$13	$36.75	+$23.75	46% 200-233 (433)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 48.7¢	$43.85	$34.2	-$5.9	49% 786-829 (1615)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 74¢	$37	$21.75	-$15.25	49% 973-998 (1971)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 57¢	$10.83	$11.78	+$0.95	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$7.85	$7.27	-$0.58	31% 444-971 (1415)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 49.8¢	$16.57	$7.15	-$2.98	55% 729-596 (1325)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 42.5¢	$4.71	$4.21	-$0.5	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 67¢	$3.35	$1.66	-$1.69	40% 438-657 (1095)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$1,899.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$321.67

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,075.46

Value

$836.46

PnL

-$239

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$802.13

Value

$744.38

PnL

+$157.09

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Over$288.0942.1¢+$178.35

Under$378.9146.1¢-$21.26

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,389.65

Value

$577.58

PnL

+$185.93

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$251.66

Value

$210.4

PnL

-$41.26

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Over$136.4566.6¢+$14.23

Under$115.2151.1¢-$55.49

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$125.05

Value

$126.5

PnL

+$1.45

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

suntoriCTR

Under

Invested

$104.76

Value

$103.51

PnL

-$1.25

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$99.55

Value

$89.01

PnL

-$10.53

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$58.22

Value

$64.72

PnL

+$6.5

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Both legs:

Over$33.1650¢+$4.31

Under$25.0640¢+$2.19

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.43

Value

$60.72

PnL

-$8.71

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.8

Value

$47.85

PnL

-$4.95

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33

Value

$43.5

PnL

+$10.5

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

Anon455<$100

Over

Invested

$13

Value

$36.75

PnL

+$23.75

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.85

Value

$34.2

PnL

-$5.9

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37

Value

$21.75

PnL

-$15.25

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$10.83

Value

$11.78

PnL

+$0.95

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.85

Value

$7.27

PnL

-$0.58

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.57

Value

$7.15

PnL

-$2.98

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.71

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.35

Value

$1.66

PnL

-$1.69

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 17 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.