Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 221.5

11 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Over (46%) · Over at 76¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 12

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

-$54.64

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 75.5¢

+25% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 24 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,793

Combined PnL+$305.5

Under13 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,973

Combined PnL-$360.14

Over — 46%Under — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 63.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$91.99	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 37.2¢	$2.9K	$961.69	+$356.39	55% 843-701 (1544)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 57.7¢	$867.14	$752.44	-$5.08	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$655.81	$744.56	+$141.88	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Over leg	Overavg 30.3¢	$213.75	$493.9	+$300.43
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$409.21	$250.66	-$158.55
MA marvelousmarvinCTR	Underavg 50¢	$581.51	$453.58	-$127.93	29% 16-39 (55)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 49.9¢	$242.66	$366.93	+$124.27	39% 233-367 (600)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Overavg 52.5¢	$248.5	$350.02	+$101.52	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 57¢	$286.07	$306.91	+$20.84	53% 305-275 (580)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 41.8¢	$429.9	$267.66	-$162.24	31% 441-967 (1408)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 49¢	$171.97	$146.91	-$25.06	36% 410-719 (1129)
AN Anon455	Overavg 61¢	$106.84	$115.43	+$8.59	46% 200-233 (433)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 44.9¢	$182.48	$111.67	-$70.81	31% 444-971 (1415)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 46¢	$234.79	$109.74	-$125.05	31% 242-544 (786)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 45.1¢	$132.78	$72.2	-$60.58	31% 438-969 (1407)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 49.6¢	$88.24	$69.06	-$19.18	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
dips.<$100	Overavg 88¢	$65.12	$55.87	-$9.25	45% 436-533 (969)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 88¢	$61.6	$52.85	-$8.75	63% 291-169 (460)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$66.39	$34.81	-$31.58	32% 444-952 (1396)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 88.5¢	$32.75	$27.94	-$4.82	42% 282-393 (675)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 73.1¢	$53.3	$25.52	-$15.33	49% 786-829 (1615)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 64.3¢	$369.48	$11.98	-$92.29	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 51.5¢	$17.32	$8.6	+$1.52	55% 729-596 (1325)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$1.03	$2.08	+$1.06	49% 973-998 (1971)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Underavg 62¢	$1.86	$0.33	-$1.53	52% 235-217 (452)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 62¢	$1.63	$0.29	-$1.34	40% 438-657 (1095)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,664.92

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$91.99

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$2,885.3

Value

$961.69

PnL

+$356.39

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$867.14

Value

$752.44

PnL

-$5.08

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$655.81

Value

$744.56

PnL

+$141.88

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Over$213.7530.3¢+$300.43

Under$409.2149¢-$158.55

marvelousmarvinCTR

Under

Invested

$581.51

Value

$453.58

PnL

-$127.93

Record

29%

16-39 (55)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$242.66

Value

$366.93

PnL

+$124.27

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Over

Invested

$248.5

Value

$350.02

PnL

+$101.52

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$286.07

Value

$306.91

PnL

+$20.84

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$429.9

Value

$267.66

PnL

-$162.24

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$171.97

Value

$146.91

PnL

-$25.06

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$106.84

Value

$115.43

PnL

+$8.59

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$182.48

Value

$111.67

PnL

-$70.81

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$234.79

Value

$109.74

PnL

-$125.05

Record

31%

242-544 (786)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$132.78

Value

$72.2

PnL

-$60.58

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$88.24

Value

$69.06

PnL

-$19.18

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$65.12

Value

$55.87

PnL

-$9.25

Record

45%

436-533 (969)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$61.6

Value

$52.85

PnL

-$8.75

Record

63%

291-169 (460)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.39

Value

$34.81

PnL

-$31.58

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$32.75

Value

$27.94

PnL

-$4.82

Record

42%

282-393 (675)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$53.3

Value

$25.52

PnL

-$15.33

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$369.48

Value

$11.98

PnL

-$92.29

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$17.32

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$1.52

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.03

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$1.06

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.86

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$1.53

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.63

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$1.34

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 24 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.