Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 209.5

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 90¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over90¢Under10¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$6.16

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 90.4¢

+35% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over90%

Under10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,498

Combined PnL+$592.76

Under8 traders

Total Value$93.9

Total Shares1,385

Combined PnL-$586.6

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (13 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 60.6¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$403.58	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 86.5¢	$526.98	$579.18	+$52.2	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Overavg 63¢	$126	$190.2	+$64.2	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
AN Anon455	Overavg 58¢	$91.68	$154.12	+$62.44	46% 200-233 (433)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 31.1¢	$212.14	$47.71	-$164.43	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 61¢	$23.1	$30.62	+$7.52	49% 786-829 (1615)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 39¢	$111.15	$13.97	-$97.19	53% 305-275 (580)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Underavg 43¢	$100	$11.4	-$88.6	48% 74-80 (154)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 36.6¢	$12.38	$8.62	-$3.76	55% 729-596 (1325)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 62¢	$4.94	$7.77	+$2.83	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$66.39	$7.75	-$58.64	31% 441-967 (1408)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 43¢	$1.1K	$2.25	-$166.3	55% 843-701 (1544)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$8	$1.67	-$6.33	36% 410-719 (1129)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$1.9	$0.55	-$1.35	47% 1681-1866 (3547)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,076.72

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$403.58

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$526.98

Value

$579.18

PnL

+$52.2

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Over

Invested

$126

Value

$190.2

PnL

+$64.2

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$91.68

Value

$154.12

PnL

+$62.44

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$212.14

Value

$47.71

PnL

-$164.43

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$23.1

Value

$30.62

PnL

+$7.52

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$111.15

Value

$13.97

PnL

-$97.19

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Under

Invested

$100

Value

$11.4

PnL

-$88.6

Record

48%

74-80 (154)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.38

Value

$8.62

PnL

-$3.76

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$4.94

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$2.83

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.39

Value

$7.75

PnL

-$58.64

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$1,088.66

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$166.3

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$1.67

PnL

-$6.33

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$1.35

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (13 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.8%

90.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.