Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 207.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 76¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$303.09

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 75.5¢

+14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,905

Combined PnL+$262.55

Under6 traders

Total Value$844.54

Total Shares2,354

Combined PnL+$40.54

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Overavg 67.9¢	$933.68	$1.1K	+$118.96	51% 3726-3550 (7276)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 34.4¢	$648.93	$689.49	+$40.55	45% 185-223 (408)
RN1	Overavg 63¢	$563.98	$684.29	+$120.32	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 66.3¢	$420.58	$433.37	+$12.78	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 33.7¢	$319.2	$289.95	-$27.9	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
└ Over leg	Overavg 68¢	$142.12	$154.66	+$12.54
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.7¢	$175.39	$135.29	-$40.44
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 67¢	$71.69	$81.86	+$10.17	58% 3212-2312 (5524)
DC 0xdc41...dd7eCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$75.52	$76.7	+$1.18	—
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$66	$65	-$1	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
E5 0xe550...be3f<$100	Overavg 66.5¢	$20.6	$20.93	+$0.32	—
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 33.9¢	$24.63	$9.39	-$0.73	49% 693-734 (1427)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$1.85	$2.07	+$0.22	60% 2617-1724 (4341)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$1.6	$1.9	+$0.3	55% 683-554 (1237)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Over

Invested

$933.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$118.96

Record

51%

3726-3550 (7276)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$648.93

Value

$689.49

PnL

+$40.55

Record

45%

185-223 (408)

RN1

Over

Invested

$563.98

Value

$684.29

PnL

+$120.32

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$420.58

Value

$433.37

PnL

+$12.78

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$319.2

Value

$289.95

PnL

-$27.9

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Both legs:

Over$142.1268¢+$12.54

Under$175.3933.7¢-$40.44

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$71.69

Value

$81.86

PnL

+$10.17

Record

58%

3212-2312 (5524)

0xdc41...dd7eCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$75.52

Value

$76.7

PnL

+$1.18

Record

—

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66

Value

$65

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

0xe550...be3f<$100

Over

Invested

$20.6

Value

$20.93

PnL

+$0.32

Record

—

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.63

Value

$9.39

PnL

-$0.73

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.85

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.22

Record

60%

2617-1724 (4341)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.