Spread: Magic (-22.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (57%) · Jazz at 99¢ · $493 held · ended Nov 12

Magic1¢Jazz99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 57%

Total Value

$492.94

Combined PnL

$6.98

Smart Money Entry

96.7¢ → 98.6¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Magic1%

Jazz99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$481.34

Total Shares486

Combined PnL+$11.39

Magic3 traders

Total Value$11.6

Total Shares486

Combined PnL-$4.42

Jazz — 57%Magic — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Jazzavg 97.6¢	$321.93	$328.31	+$6.38	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Jazzavg 96¢	$96	$98.55	+$2.55	55% 843-701 (1544)
TA takeormake<$100	Jazzavg 92¢	$42.32	$45.08	+$2.76	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Jazzavg 96.9¢	$9.7	$9.4	-$0.3	49% 973-998 (1971)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Magicavg 4¢	$4	$6	+$2	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Magicavg 3.1¢	$7.83	$3.64	-$4.19	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Magicavg 3.1¢	$4.18	$1.96	-$2.23	49% 786-829 (1615)

Flaznorp

Jazz

Invested

$321.93

Value

$328.31

PnL

+$6.38

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Jazz

Invested

$96

Value

$98.55

PnL

+$2.55

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

takeormake<$100

Jazz

Invested

$42.32

Value

$45.08

PnL

+$2.76

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

ferdinand2<$100

Jazz

Invested

$9.7

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0.3

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

Value

PnL

+$2

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$7.83

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$4.19

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$4.18

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$2.23

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.