Spread: Magic (-10.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (67%) · Jazz at 94¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Magic7¢Jazz93¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$75.24

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 93.5¢

+28% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic7%

Jazz94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,122

Combined PnL+$245.59

Magic3 traders

Total Value$174.69

Total Shares1,467

Combined PnL-$170.36

Jazz — 67%Magic — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Jazzavg 74.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$56.99	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 66.1¢	$867.23	$843.95	+$226.72	55% 843-701 (1544)
AN Anon455	Jazzavg 88¢	$507.34	$402.02	-$105.32	46% 200-233 (433)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Magicavg 30.3¢	$356	$260	-$96	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 87¢	$174	$170	-$4
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 30.3¢	$182	$90	-$92
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Jazzavg 70¢	$140	$185	+$45	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Magicavg 29.6¢	$241.72	$126.9	-$114.83	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
38 38791873984189<$100	Jazzavg 70¢	$66.5	$82.65	+$16.15	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
nigiri99<$100	Jazzavg 71.9¢	$28.75	$34.8	+$6.05	52% 235-217 (452)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Magicavg 12.6¢	$72.65	$34.5	-$38.15	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Magicavg 30¢	$30.67	$13.29	-$17.38	32% 444-952 (1396)

RN1

Jazz

Invested

$1,372.99

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$56.99

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$867.23

Value

$843.95

PnL

+$226.72

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Anon455

Jazz

Invested

$507.34

Value

$402.02

PnL

-$105.32

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$356

Value

$260

PnL

-$96

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Jazz$17487¢-$4

Magic$18230.3¢-$92

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Jazz

Invested

$140

Value

$185

PnL

+$45

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

FlaznorpCTR

Magic

Invested

$241.72

Value

$126.9

PnL

-$114.83

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

38791873984189<$100

Jazz

Invested

$66.5

Value

$82.65

PnL

+$16.15

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

nigiri99<$100

Jazz

Invested

$28.75

Value

$34.8

PnL

+$6.05

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$72.65

Value

$34.5

PnL

-$38.15

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$30.67

Value

$13.29

PnL

-$17.38

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.