Magic vs. Kings: O/U 233.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 93¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
$54.33
73.8¢ → 92.5¢
+25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 93%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Underavg 73.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$115.31 | 56% 504-395 (899) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 26.3¢ | $586.41 | $421.61 | -$164.8 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 82.6¢ | $260.23 | $278.76 | +$18.53 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 26.3¢ | $326.18 | $142.85 | -$183.33 | |
65 6512395314597884 | Underavg 73.9¢ | $364.63 | $262.05 | -$25.78 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
 RN1 | Underavg 81¢ | $286.39 | $130.51 | +$14.57 | 58% 3830-2807 (6637) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $87.64 | $32.87 | -$54.78 | 62% 2365-1458 (3823) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $23 | $28 | +$5 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
Invested
$1,593.56
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$115.31
Record
56%
504-395 (899)
Invested
$586.41
Value
$421.61
PnL
-$164.8
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Both legs:
Invested
$364.63
Value
$262.05
PnL
-$25.78
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
RN1Invested
$286.39
Value
$130.51
PnL
+$14.57
Record
58%
3830-2807 (6637)
Invested
$87.64
Value
$32.87
PnL
-$54.78
Record
62%
2365-1458 (3823)
Invested
$23
Value
$28
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.