Magic vs. Kings: O/U 229.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 66¢ · $675 held · ended Nov 11

Over34¢Under66¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

Total Value

$675.32

Combined PnL

-$13.93

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 66¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$507.92

Total Shares799

Combined PnL+$4.89

Over4 traders

Total Value$167.4

Total Shares481

Combined PnL-$18.82

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 62¢	$428.26	$428.48	+$0.22	56% 504-395 (899)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 38.6¢	$105.24	$92.74	-$12.5	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 60.7¢	$61.85	$67.3	+$5.45	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$36.86	$32.98	-$3.88	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$34.2	$30.6	-$3.6	64% 180-100 (280)
RN1<$100	Underavg 66¢	$12.93	$12.14	-$0.78	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$20.12	$11.08	+$1.16	49% 450-474 (924)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$428.26

Value

$428.48

PnL

+$0.22

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$105.24

Value

$92.74

PnL

-$12.5

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$61.85

Value

$67.3

PnL

+$5.45

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.86

Value

$32.98

PnL

-$3.88

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.2

Value

$30.6

PnL

-$3.6

Record

64%

180-100 (280)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$12.93

Value

$12.14

PnL

-$0.78

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.12

Value

$11.08

PnL

+$1.16

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.