Magic vs. Kings: O/U 209.5

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (23%) · Under at 51¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 11

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 23%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

$460.05

Smart Money Entry

30.2¢ → 50.5¢

+67% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 13 top traders (23%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,405

Combined PnL+$454.67

Over10 traders

Total Value$522.42

Total Shares986

Combined PnL+$5.38

Under — 23%Over — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 60.5¢	$4.1K	$4.5K	+$434.28	55% 541-436 (977)
└ Under leg	Underavg 31.4¢	$1.5K	$2.7K	+$1.2K
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.5¢	$2.6K	$1.8K	-$803.73
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 75.4¢	$3.8K	$3.6K	-$212.07	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
└ Under leg	Underavg 36.1¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$498.3
└ Over leg	Overavg 75.4¢	$2.3K	$1.6K	-$710.38
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 75.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$0.07	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
└ Under leg	Underavg 28.9¢	$480.4	$1.1K	+$641.65
└ Over leg	Overavg 75.8¢	$1.1K	$481.42	-$641.58
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 64.6¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$152.21	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
└ Over leg	Overavg 64.6¢	$1.1K	$845.89	-$205.06
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.2¢	$475.98	$528.44	+$52.85
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 35¢	$560	$644	+$178	53% 228-199 (427)
betdge	Underavg 23.1¢	$224.7	$491.37	+$266.67	49% 27-28 (55)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 77¢	$437.57	$366.02	-$71.55	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.7¢	$162.63	$216.08	+$53.45
└ Over leg	Overavg 77¢	$274.94	$149.94	-$125
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 48.8¢	$127.02	$135.45	+$8.43	33% 160-331 (491)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 44¢	$104.77	$117.73	+$12.96	29% 315-788 (1103)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 48.8¢	$77.76	$77.24	-$0.52	28% 317-800 (1117)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 51.7¢	$74.03	$73.48	-$0.55	49% 200-208 (408)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$53	$52.5	-$0.5	53% 5575-4959 (10534)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 53.5¢	$23.84	$27.41	+$3.57	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 35.8¢	$11.31	$21.32	+$10	54% 445-377 (822)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 76.5¢	$55.4	$17.98	-$16.43	49% 498-518 (1016)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$17.21	$17.02	-$0.19	29% 322-773 (1095)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$4	$2.6	-$1.4	62% 2389-1477 (3866)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$1	$1	+$0	7% 31-415 (446)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,086.48

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$434.28

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

Both legs:

Under$1,456.4631.4¢+$1.2K

Over$2,630.0260.5¢-$803.73

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,793.45

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$212.07

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

Both legs:

Under$1,506.6136.1¢+$498.3

Over$2,253.7975.4¢-$710.38

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,603.39

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

Both legs:

Under$480.428.9¢+$641.65

Over$1,122.9975.8¢-$641.58

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,530.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$152.21

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

Both legs:

Over$1,050.9564.6¢-$205.06

Under$475.9843.2¢+$52.85

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$560

Value

$644

PnL

+$178

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

betdge

Under

Invested

$224.7

Value

$491.37

PnL

+$266.67

Record

49%

27-28 (55)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$437.57

Value

$366.02

PnL

-$71.55

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Both legs:

Under$162.6343.7¢+$53.45

Over$274.9477¢-$125

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$127.02

Value

$135.45

PnL

+$8.43

Record

33%

160-331 (491)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$104.77

Value

$117.73

PnL

+$12.96

Record

29%

315-788 (1103)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$77.76

Value

$77.24

PnL

-$0.52

Record

28%

317-800 (1117)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$74.03

Value

$73.48

PnL

-$0.55

Record

49%

200-208 (408)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53

Value

$52.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

5575-4959 (10534)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.84

Value

$27.41

PnL

+$3.57

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$11.31

Value

$21.32

PnL

+$10

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55.4

Value

$17.98

PnL

-$16.43

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.21

Value

$17.02

PnL

-$0.19

Record

29%

322-773 (1095)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$1.4

Record

62%

2389-1477 (3866)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

31-415 (446)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 13 top traders (23%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.