Spread: Magic (-2.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (38%) · Magic at 61¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Magic61¢Kings39¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$10.8

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 60.5¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Magic61%

Kings40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic3 traders

Total Value$211.12

Total Shares268

Combined PnL+$18.43

Kings5 traders

Total Value$185.13

Total Shares488

Combined PnL-$7.63

Magic — 38%Kings — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Kingsavg 45.9¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$225.67	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 64¢	$787.1	$873.32	+$86.22
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 45.9¢	$846.65	$534.76	-$311.89
RN1ARB<$100	Magicavg 65.4¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$5.6	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 65.4¢	$679.72	$628.6	-$52.75
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 34.9¢	$362	$409.15	+$47.15
FL Flaznorp	Magicavg 66¢	$135.74	$157.68	+$21.94	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kingsavg 28¢	$91.45	$111.22	+$19.77	48% 969-1052 (2021)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 28¢	$51.8	$74.93	+$23.13
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 65¢	$39.65	$36.3	-$3.35
MA MadridTimeCTR	Kingsavg 40.3¢	$103.01	$97.2	-$5.81	29% 307-750 (1057)
PA Pan9X<$100	Magicavg 61.3¢	$59.65	$35.74	-$3.21	49% 450-474 (924)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Kingsavg 38¢	$34.97	$33.13	-$1.84	49% 220-229 (449)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Kingsavg 38¢	$25.59	$24.4	-$1.19	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Kingsavg 35¢	$21.35	$24.1	+$2.75	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
TA takeormake<$100	Magicavg 60¢	$18	$17.7	-$0.3	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Kingsavg 47.9¢	$7.84	$6.3	-$1.54	51% 3173-3073 (6246)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$1,633.75

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$225.67

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Magic$787.164¢+$86.22

Kings$846.6545.9¢-$311.89

RN1ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$1,061.35

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$5.6

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

Both legs:

Magic$679.7265.4¢-$52.75

Kings$36234.9¢+$47.15

Flaznorp

Magic

Invested

$135.74

Value

$157.68

PnL

+$21.94

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$91.45

Value

$111.22

PnL

+$19.77

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Both legs:

Invested

$103.01

Value

$97.2

PnL

-$5.81

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

Pan9X<$100

Magic

Invested

$59.65

Value

$35.74

PnL

-$3.21

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$34.97

Value

$33.13

PnL

-$1.84

Record

49%

220-229 (449)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$25.59

Value

$24.4

PnL

-$1.19

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$21.35

Value

$24.1

PnL

+$2.75

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

takeormake<$100

Magic

Invested

$18

Value

$17.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$7.84

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$1.54

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.