Spread: Magic (-11.5)

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (82%) · Kings at 75¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 11

Magic26¢Kings74¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.6K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 74.5¢

+45% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic26%

Kings75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings9 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares25,770

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Magic2 traders

Total Value$541.45

Total Shares1,171

Combined PnL+$186.73

Kings — 82%Magic — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpKings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKings 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Kingsavg 51¢	$9.5K	$10.7K	+$1.1K	51% 3680-3512 (7192)
65 6512395314597884	Kingsavg 53.2¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$226.39	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Kingsavg 71¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$361.12	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 71¢	$853.06	$894.59	+$41.53
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 49.6¢	$828.5	$425.85	-$402.65
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Kingsavg 53.5¢	$849.4	$1.2K	+$332.89	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
RN1	Kingsavg 52.3¢	$691.46	$838.9	+$147.44	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
BI biying88888	Kingsavg 45¢	$360	$596	+$236	27% 63-170 (233)
SU suitcase6628	Kingsavg 51¢	$510	$570	+$60	64% 180-100 (280)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Magicavg 28.1¢	$308.6	$464.58	+$155.98	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
38 38791873984189	Kingsavg 69.4¢	$181.29	$142.28	-$29.87	48% 969-1052 (2021)
TA takeormake	Kingsavg 52.1¢	$97.88	$140.06	+$42.18	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Magicavg 33¢	$46.12	$76.87	+$30.75	28% 299-766 (1065)
PA Pan9X<$100	Kingsavg 67¢	$34.19	$30.44	-$3.75	49% 450-474 (924)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Kings

Invested

$9,536.62

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

51%

3680-3512 (7192)

6512395314597884

Kings

Invested

$1,347.3

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$226.39

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$1,681.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$361.12

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Kings$853.0671¢+$41.53

Magic$828.549.6¢-$402.65

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Kings

Invested

$849.4

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$332.89

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

RN1

Kings

Invested

$691.46

Value

$838.9

PnL

+$147.44

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

biying88888

Kings

Invested

$360

Value

$596

PnL

+$236

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

suitcase6628

Kings

Invested

$510

Value

$570

PnL

+$60

Record

64%

180-100 (280)

FlaznorpCTR

Magic

Invested

$308.6

Value

$464.58

PnL

+$155.98

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

38791873984189

Kings

Invested

$181.29

Value

$142.28

PnL

-$29.87

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

takeormake

Kings

Invested

$97.88

Value

$140.06

PnL

+$42.18

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$46.12

Value

$76.87

PnL

+$30.75

Record

28%

299-766 (1065)

Pan9X<$100

Kings

Invested

$34.19

Value

$30.44

PnL

-$3.75

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpKings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKings 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.