Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.
Magic vs. Suns: O/U 222.5
Resolved Under. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
28
Over 56%
4 arb excluded
$103.9K
$-24.8K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 28 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 50.9¢ | $20.0K | — | $-20.0K | 46% 1607-1883 (3490) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 50.1¢ | $16.5K | — | $-28.8K | 54% 18236-15351 (33587) |
MA marvelousmarvin | Underavg 50.7¢ | $21.5K | $42.4K | +$20.9K | 51% 29-28 (57) |
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 50.1¢ | $8.5K | — | $-8.7K | 46% 8659-10309 (18968) |
IA ianf2026 | Underavg 50.6¢ | $10.0K | $19.7K | +$9.7K | 48% 105-112 (217) |
CH chongchong37 | Underavg 49.4¢ | $7.4K | $15.1K | +$7.6K | 51% 142-135 (277) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $4.8K | — | $-4.8K | 48% 352-379 (731) |
 nehcnehcCTR | Overavg 51.1¢ | $4.7K | — | $-5.7K | 61% 4150-2619 (6769) |
AP AppleTiiime | Underavg 51¢ | $5.1K | $10.0K | +$4.9K | 54% 68-57 (125) |
AC Ackbar | Underavg 51.1¢ | $4.7K | $10.0K | +$5.1K | 47% 23-26 (49) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $2.1K | — | $-2.0K | 50% 4446-4373 (8819) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Underavg 49.8¢ | $1.7K | $2.9K | +$1.1K | 50% 26022-25705 (51727) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49.8¢ | $1.4K | $2.9K | +$1.8K | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49.1¢ | $531.18 | — | -$644.82 | |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 51.1¢ | $1.5K | $846.9 | -$673.66 | 53% 61623-53954 (115577) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51.1¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54.2¢ | $459.05 | $846.9 | +$387.85 | |
NO Noha13CTR | Overavg 52.2¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 51% 46-45 (91) |
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$32.18 | 51% 4776-4635 (9411) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49¢ | $627.18 | — | -$627.18 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 41.1¢ | $414.8 | $1.0K | +$595 | |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 52.7¢ | $987.55 | — | -$987.55 | 52% 4919-4468 (9387) |
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100 | Overavg 52.2¢ | $957.51 | $672.23 | -$285.29 | 50% 21308-21583 (42891) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52.2¢ | $637.38 | — | -$637.38 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47.6¢ | $320.13 | $672.23 | +$352.09 | |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $801.25 | — | -$801.25 | 51% 3806-3729 (7535) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Overavg 55¢ | $765.82 | — | -$765.82 | 53% 12171-10676 (22847) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Underavg 52¢ | $249.26 | $600 | +$350.74 | 51% 1949-1885 (3834) |
NM NM-PCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $191.78 | — | -$191.78 | 64% 10038-5607 (15645) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Underavg 52.3¢ | $3.7K | $474.03 | +$423.29 | 56% 8330-6493 (14823) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 49.5¢ | $43.53 | $250.01 | +$206.48 | 58% 46962-33856 (80818) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 50.4¢ | $102.82 | — | -$102.82 | 48% 61607-66479 (128086) |
DI dips.CTR<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $84.99 | — | -$84.99 | 47% 10724-12261 (22985) |
Invested
$20,039.68
Value
—
PnL
$-20.0K
Record
46%
1607-1883 (3490)
Invested
$16,474.8
Value
—
PnL
$-28.8K
Record
54%
18236-15351 (33587)
Invested
$21,481.65
Value
$42.4K
PnL
+$20.9K
Record
51%
29-28 (57)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$8,504.8
Value
—
PnL
$-8.7K
Record
46%
8659-10309 (18968)
Invested
$9,958.47
Value
$19.7K
PnL
+$9.7K
Record
48%
105-112 (217)
Invested
$7,431.17
Value
$15.1K
PnL
+$7.6K
Record
51%
142-135 (277)
Invested
$4,765.68
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
48%
352-379 (731)
nehcnehcCTRInvested
$4,737
Value
—
PnL
$-5.7K
Record
61%
4150-2619 (6769)
Invested
$5,100
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$4.9K
Record
54%
68-57 (125)
Invested
$4,746.52
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$5.1K
Record
47%
23-26 (49)
Invested
$2,089.44
Value
—
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
50%
4446-4373 (8819)
Invested
$1,670.54
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
50%
26022-25705 (51727)
Both legs:
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,520.56
Value
$846.9
PnL
-$673.66
Record
53%
61623-53954 (115577)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,044.99
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
51%
46-45 (91)
Invested
$1,041.98
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$32.18
Record
51%
4776-4635 (9411)
Both legs:
Invested
$987.55
Value
—
PnL
-$987.55
Record
52%
4919-4468 (9387)
Invested
$957.51
Value
$672.23
PnL
-$285.29
Record
50%
21308-21583 (42891)
Both legs:
Invested
$801.25
Value
—
PnL
-$801.25
Record
51%
3806-3729 (7535)
Invested
$765.82
Value
—
PnL
-$765.82
Record
53%
12171-10676 (22847)
Invested
$249.26
Value
$600
PnL
+$350.74
Record
51%
1949-1885 (3834)
Invested
$191.78
Value
—
PnL
-$191.78
Record
64%
10038-5607 (15645)
Invested
$3,657.4
Value
$474.03
PnL
+$423.29
Record
56%
8330-6493 (14823)
VeryLucky888Invested
$43.53
Value
$250.01
PnL
+$206.48
Record
58%
46962-33856 (80818)
Invested
$102.82
Value
—
PnL
-$102.82
Record
48%
61607-66479 (128086)
Invested
$84.99
Value
—
PnL
-$84.99
Record
47%
10724-12261 (22985)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTROver — $0
HomeRunHazard
CTROver — $0
marvelousmarvin
Under — $42.4K
nigiri99
CTROver — $0
ianf2026
Under — $19.7K
chongchong37
Under — $15.1K
Multicoloured-Serf
CTROver — $0
nehcnehc
CTROver — $0
AppleTiiime
Under — $10.0K
Ackbar
Under — $10.0K