Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 72¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$152.72

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 72¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,600

Combined PnL+$57.53

Over10 traders

Total Value$897.2

Total Shares2,538

Combined PnL+$95.2

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 74¢	$1.0K	$939.02	+$71.37	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 88¢	$771.9	$604.66	-$123.23	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Overavg 43.8¢	$248.94	$290.19	+$41.25	49% 497-523 (1020)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 56.2¢	$308.18	$285.87	+$90.94	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 26¢	$607.96	$239.78	+$29.24	55% 843-701 (1544)
RN1	Underavg 70.6¢	$223.76	$196.64	+$9.7	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 46¢	$147.2	$163.2	+$16	52% 235-217 (452)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 24.2¢	$114.43	$120.79	+$6.36	46% 200-233 (433)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 70¢	$100.75	$38	+$7.47	49% 786-829 (1615)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$17.98	$17.36	-$0.62	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$17.4	$16.8	-$0.6	63% 291-169 (460)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$14.5	$14	-$0.5	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$8.7	$12.69	+$3.99	49% 973-998 (1971)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$11.88	$12.32	+$0.44	45% 304-377 (681)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$10.44	$10.08	-$0.36	36% 410-719 (1129)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.71	$3.99	+$1.27	52% 1914-1760 (3674)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,020.91

Value

$939.02

PnL

+$71.37

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$771.9

Value

$604.66

PnL

-$123.23

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Over

Invested

$248.94

Value

$290.19

PnL

+$41.25

Record

49%

497-523 (1020)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$308.18

Value

$285.87

PnL

+$90.94

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$607.96

Value

$239.78

PnL

+$29.24

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

RN1

Under

Invested

$223.76

Value

$196.64

PnL

+$9.7

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$147.2

Value

$163.2

PnL

+$16

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$114.43

Value

$120.79

PnL

+$6.36

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$100.75

Value

$38

PnL

+$7.47

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.98

Value

$17.36

PnL

-$0.62

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.4

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$0.6

Record

63%

291-169 (460)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.5

Value

$14

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.7

Value

$12.69

PnL

+$3.99

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.88

Value

$12.32

PnL

+$0.44

Record

45%

304-377 (681)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.44

Value

$10.08

PnL

-$0.36

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$2.71

Value

$3.99

PnL

+$1.27

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.