Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 220.5

20 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Over (87%) · Over at 67¢ · $40K held · ended Nov 12

Over67¢Under33¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 87%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.6K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 66.5¢

+32% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

20 of 23 top traders (87%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over67%

Under34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over20 traders

Total Value$34.4K

Total Shares63,488

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Under3 traders

Total Value$619.49

Total Shares1,612

Combined PnL-$56.21

Over — 87%Under — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 49¢	$17.2K	$17.0K	-$174.38	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 50¢	$7.2K	$7.5K	+$271.45	39% 233-367 (600)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 50.8¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$442.03	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.8¢	$1.8K	$2.5K	+$762.56
└ Under leg	Underavg 37.9¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$320.53
RN1	Overavg 54.4¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$289.06	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Overavg 50¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$62.68	51% 3730-3553 (7283)
nigiri99	Overavg 67.2¢	$996.66	$1.1K	+$131.18	52% 235-217 (452)
0X 0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b	Overavg 67.5¢	$940.84	$1.1K	+$118.48	—
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 49.7¢	$855.38	$893.97	+$38.58	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.7¢	$572.87	$598.94	+$26.07
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$282.51	$295.02	+$12.51
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 55¢	$2.2K	$789.23	+$198.3	55% 843-701 (1544)
AN Anon455	Overavg 45¢	$450	$495	+$45	46% 200-233 (433)
TA takeormake	Overavg 50.2¢	$311.03	$424.69	+$113.66	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 38.9¢	$456.65	$410.51	-$46.14	47% 350-393 (743)
SU suntori	Overavg 48¢	$248.56	$377.87	+$129.31	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
4d9a879611D994FD9B56	Overavg 60¢	$240	$304	+$64	— 2-10 (12)
alpheclabs2	Overavg 46¢	$216.66	$228.44	+$11.78	44% 143-184 (327)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 49¢	$364.04	$224.28	+$34.34	31% 441-967 (1408)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 60.6¢	$474.76	$192.13	+$30.54	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.6¢	$107.23	$125.65	-$0.95
└ Under leg	Underavg 38.5¢	$88.34	$66.48	+$31.49
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 50.3¢	$152.77	$153.52	+$0.75	40% 438-657 (1095)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 47¢	$97.69	$108	+$10.31	36% 410-719 (1129)
NA NatoAlfista	Overavg 49¢	$72.52	$105.08	+$32.56	39% 80-127 (207)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Overavg 50¢	$100	$99	-$1	48% 74-80 (154)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 49.9¢	$87.34	$98.62	+$30.88	49% 973-998 (1971)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$66.28	$55.46	-$10.82	31% 438-969 (1407)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 62¢	$44.84	$54.97	+$10.13	61% 935-598 (1533)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 68.4¢	$150.59	$39.71	+$13.97	49% 786-829 (1615)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$17,223.85

Value

$17.0K

PnL

-$174.38

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$7,198.9

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$271.45

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,393.82

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$442.03

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Both legs:

Over$1,764.4350.8¢+$762.56

Under$1,365.3637.9¢-$320.53

RN1

Over

Invested

$2,409.07

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$289.06

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Over

Invested

$1,567.09

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$62.68

Record

51%

3730-3553 (7283)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$996.66

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$131.18

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b

Over

Invested

$940.84

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$118.48

Record

—

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$855.38

Value

$893.97

PnL

+$38.58

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Over$572.8749.7¢+$26.07

Under$282.5146¢+$12.51

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$2,157.39

Value

$789.23

PnL

+$198.3

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$450

Value

$495

PnL

+$45

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$311.03

Value

$424.69

PnL

+$113.66

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$456.65

Value

$410.51

PnL

-$46.14

Record

47%

350-393 (743)

suntori

Over

Invested

$248.56

Value

$377.87

PnL

+$129.31

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

4d9a879611D994FD9B56

Over

Invested

$240

Value

$304

PnL

+$64

Record

—

2-10 (12)

alpheclabs2

Over

Invested

$216.66

Value

$228.44

PnL

+$11.78

Record

44%

143-184 (327)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$364.04

Value

$224.28

PnL

+$34.34

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$474.76

Value

$192.13

PnL

+$30.54

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Both legs:

Over$107.2360.6¢-$0.95

Under$88.3438.5¢+$31.49

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$152.77

Value

$153.52

PnL

+$0.75

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$97.69

Value

$108

PnL

+$10.31

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

NatoAlfista

Over

Invested

$72.52

Value

$105.08

PnL

+$32.56

Record

39%

80-127 (207)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Over

Invested

$100

Value

$99

PnL

-$1

Record

48%

74-80 (154)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$87.34

Value

$98.62

PnL

+$30.88

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.28

Value

$55.46

PnL

-$10.82

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

darkumbreon88<$100

Over

Invested

$44.84

Value

$54.97

PnL

+$10.13

Record

61%

935-598 (1533)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$150.59

Value

$39.71

PnL

+$13.97

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

20 of 23 top traders (87%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.