Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 206.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$16.09

Smart Money Entry

98¢ → 99.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,158

Combined PnL+$14.01

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.97

Total Shares609

Combined PnL-$30.1

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 99.4¢	$720.19	$718.39	-$1.8	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 99¢	$198	$199	+$1	50% 3375-3365 (6740)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 99.1¢	$148.65	$149.25	+$0.6	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 82¢	$67.24	$81.59	+$14.35	60% 2805-1885 (4690)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 96¢	$5.76	$5.62	-$0.14	41% 124-177 (301)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 9.5¢	$14.91	$0.79	-$14.12	54% 930-784 (1714)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$9	$0.6	-$8.4	12% 34-240 (274)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 5.6¢	$5.24	$0.47	-$4.77	36% 446-789 (1235)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 5.1¢	$2.72	$0.11	-$2.61	47% 847-942 (1789)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$0.2	$0.01	-$0.19	24% 78-247 (325)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$720.19

Value

$718.39

PnL

-$1.8

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$198

Value

$199

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

3375-3365 (6740)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$148.65

Value

$149.25

PnL

+$0.6

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$67.24

Value

$81.59

PnL

+$14.35

Record

60%

2805-1885 (4690)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$5.76

Value

$5.62

PnL

-$0.14

Record

41%

124-177 (301)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.91

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$14.12

Record

54%

930-784 (1714)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$8.4

Record

12%

34-240 (274)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.24

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$4.77

Record

36%

446-789 (1235)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.72

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$2.61

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.19

Record

24%

78-247 (325)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.