Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)

10 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (50%) · Thunder at 82¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Trail Blazers19¢Thunder81¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$311.24

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 81.5¢

+8% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

10 of 20 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers19%

Thunder82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder10 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,952

Combined PnL+$132.96

Trail Blazers10 traders

Total Value$572.16

Total Shares3,687

Combined PnL-$444.2

Thunder — 50%Trail Blazers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 58% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 71.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$57.25	54% 930-784 (1714)
RN1	Thunderavg 85.2¢	$772.42	$793.63	+$21.21	57% 4253-3271 (7524)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Trail Blazersavg 22.8¢	$460.4	$272.53	-$187.87	53% 356-319 (675)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 46.2¢	$343.68	$270.35	-$73.33	50% 3375-3365 (6740)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 71.6¢	$163.37	$168.87	+$5.51
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 46.2¢	$180.31	$101.48	-$78.84
PA Pan9X	Thunderavg 66.1¢	$133.93	$131.76	+$12.8	47% 847-942 (1789)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Trail Blazersavg 36.6¢	$243.91	$90.07	-$153.84	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
dips.<$100	Thunderavg 76¢	$71.44	$81.31	+$9.87	45% 462-565 (1027)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Thunderavg 76¢	$71.44	$81.31	+$9.87	60% 2805-1885 (4690)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Thunderavg 76¢	$68.4	$77.85	+$9.45	63% 310-179 (489)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 30¢	$88.8	$76.96	-$11.84	32% 484-1020 (1504)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Trail Blazersavg 48.2¢	$120.5	$65	-$55.5	47% 296-333 (629)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Thunderavg 64¢	$39.93	$46.17	+$6.24	47% 385-437 (822)
38 38791873984189CTR	Trail Blazersavg 25¢	$223.04	$21.79	+$16.6	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
TA takeormake<$100	Thunderavg 71¢	$19.17	$19.98	+$0.81	58% 3259-2339 (5598)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 45¢	$66.28	$19.88	-$46.4	32% 480-1013 (1493)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 8¢	$15.12	$19.85	+$4.73	44% 151-193 (344)
MA MadridTime<$100	Thunderavg 47¢	$6.63	$10.44	+$3.81	33% 490-999 (1489)
GH ghorrock<$100	Thunderavg 57.5¢	$5.78	$7.44	+$1.66	54% 789-676 (1465)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 29¢	$7.83	$2.7	-$5.13	40% 259-395 (654)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 29.6¢	$5.72	$1.93	-$3.79	50% 1068-1081 (2149)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 47¢	$2.6	$1.44	-$1.16	52% 1960-1815 (3775)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$1,140.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$57.25

Record

54%

930-784 (1714)

RN1

Thunder

Invested

$772.42

Value

$793.63

PnL

+$21.21

Record

57%

4253-3271 (7524)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$460.4

Value

$272.53

PnL

-$187.87

Record

53%

356-319 (675)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$343.68

Value

$270.35

PnL

-$73.33

Record

50%

3375-3365 (6740)

Both legs:

Thunder$163.3771.6¢+$5.51

Trail Blazers$180.3146.2¢-$78.84

Pan9X

Thunder

Invested

$133.93

Value

$131.76

PnL

+$12.8

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

FlaznorpCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$243.91

Value

$90.07

PnL

-$153.84

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

dips.<$100

Thunder

Invested

$71.44

Value

$81.31

PnL

+$9.87

Record

45%

462-565 (1027)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Thunder

Invested

$71.44

Value

$81.31

PnL

+$9.87

Record

60%

2805-1885 (4690)

suitcase6628<$100

Thunder

Invested

$68.4

Value

$77.85

PnL

+$9.45

Record

63%

310-179 (489)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$88.8

Value

$76.96

PnL

-$11.84

Record

32%

484-1020 (1504)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$120.5

Value

$65

PnL

-$55.5

Record

47%

296-333 (629)

SnakeBall<$100

Thunder

Invested

$39.93

Value

$46.17

PnL

+$6.24

Record

47%

385-437 (822)

38791873984189CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$223.04

Value

$21.79

PnL

+$16.6

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

takeormake<$100

Thunder

Invested

$19.17

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.81

Record

58%

3259-2339 (5598)

LimousinCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$66.28

Value

$19.88

PnL

-$46.4

Record

32%

480-1013 (1493)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$15.12

Value

$19.85

PnL

+$4.73

Record

44%

151-193 (344)

MadridTime<$100

Thunder

Invested

$6.63

Value

$10.44

PnL

+$3.81

Record

33%

490-999 (1489)

ghorrock<$100

Thunder

Invested

$5.78

Value

$7.44

PnL

+$1.66

Record

54%

789-676 (1465)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$7.83

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$5.13

Record

40%

259-395 (654)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$5.72

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$3.79

Record

50%

1068-1081 (2149)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2.6

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$1.16

Record

52%

1960-1815 (3775)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

10 of 20 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 58% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.