Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)

11 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (42%) · Trail Blazers at 53¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 12

Trail Blazers53¢Thunder47¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.4K

Combined PnL

$227.58

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 53¢

-1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

11 of 26 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers53%

Thunder47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder15 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares16,036

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Trail Blazers11 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares22,371

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Thunder — 58%Trail Blazers — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 18

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 56% · 25

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VP VPenguinCTR	Thunderavg 41¢	$5.2K	$7.1K	+$2.2K	38% 8-13 (21)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Trail Blazersavg 58.9¢	$7.6K	$5.3K	$-2.3K	52% 1960-1815 (3775)
EdZachary	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$92.91	2% 3-118 (121)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Thunderavg 55.2¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	+$70.2	54% 930-784 (1714)
RN1ARB<$100	Thunderavg 60.1¢	$1.1K	$916.45	-$162.92	57% 4253-3271 (7524)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 60.1¢	$601.57	$510.69	-$90.88
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 57.7¢	$477.81	$405.77	-$72.04
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 55.3¢	$950.67	$654.38	-$296.3	50% 3375-3365 (6740)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 55.3¢	$758.29	$494.05	-$264.25
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 76.8¢	$192.38	$160.33	-$32.05
MA MadridTimeCTR	Thunderavg 36¢	$198.86	$356.47	+$157.61	33% 490-999 (1489)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Thunderavg 44¢	$138	$161.38	+$23.38	53% 356-319 (675)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Thunderavg 54.7¢	$144.65	$156.11	+$11.47	40% 259-395 (654)
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 41.2¢	$140.21	$139.38	-$0.83	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
LI LightParadox	Trail Blazersavg 43¢	$137.48	$131.15	-$6.33	32% 484-1020 (1504)
NM NM-PCTR	Thunderavg 52¢	$122.03	$119.68	-$2.35	60% 3508-2386 (5894)
LI LimousinCTR	Thunderavg 42.5¢	$78.05	$108.46	+$30.41	32% 480-1013 (1493)
TA takeormake	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$123.31	$91.24	-$32.08	58% 3259-2339 (5598)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Thunderavg 46¢	$66.29	$85.02	+$18.73	32% 481-1026 (1507)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Thunderavg 51¢	$74.1	$74.1	+$0	47% 296-333 (629)
38 38791873984189	Trail Blazersavg 52.2¢	$189.81	$42.51	-$4.3	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
SE sentrio<$100	Trail Blazersavg 59¢	$42.98	$35.7	-$7.29	41% 483-698 (1181)
PA Pan9XCTR	Thunderavg 50.6¢	$100.28	$22.34	+$22.75	47% 847-942 (1789)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Thunderavg 49.4¢	$15.57	$18.6	+$3.03	47% 1377-1532 (2909)
US User7429<$100	Trail Blazersavg 50¢	$25	$17.5	-$7.5	29% 155-378 (533)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Thunderavg 52¢	$10.83	$10.63	-$0.21	48% 550-600 (1150)
DO DolphinBaller<$100	Trail Blazersavg 47¢	$8.46	$8.82	+$0.36	10% 12-109 (121)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Thunderavg 51¢	$7.77	$8.17	+$0.4	57% 3336-2523 (5859)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Thunderavg 50¢	$5	$5.1	+$0.1	44% 151-193 (344)

VPenguinCTR

Thunder

Invested

$5,235.17

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

38%

8-13 (21)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Trail Blazers

Invested

$7,579.88

Value

$5.3K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

52%

1960-1815 (3775)

EdZachary

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4,459.54

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$92.91

Record

3-118 (121)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Thunder

Invested

$1,692.82

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$70.2

Record

54%

930-784 (1714)

RN1ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1,079.38

Value

$916.45

PnL

-$162.92

Record

57%

4253-3271 (7524)

Both legs:

Thunder$601.5760.1¢-$90.88

Trail Blazers$477.8157.7¢-$72.04

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$950.67

Value

$654.38

PnL

-$296.3

Record

50%

3375-3365 (6740)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$758.2955.3¢-$264.25

Thunder$192.3876.8¢-$32.05

MadridTimeCTR

Thunder

Invested

$198.86

Value

$356.47

PnL

+$157.61

Record

33%

490-999 (1489)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Thunder

Invested

$138

Value

$161.38

PnL

+$23.38

Record

53%

356-319 (675)

justaluckydudeCTR

Thunder

Invested

$144.65

Value

$156.11

PnL

+$11.47

Record

40%

259-395 (654)

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$140.21

Value

$139.38

PnL

-$0.83

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

LightParadox

Trail Blazers

Invested

$137.48

Value

$131.15

PnL

-$6.33

Record

32%

484-1020 (1504)

NM-PCTR

Thunder

Invested

$122.03

Value

$119.68

PnL

-$2.35

Record

60%

3508-2386 (5894)

LimousinCTR

Thunder

Invested

$78.05

Value

$108.46

PnL

+$30.41

Record

32%

480-1013 (1493)

takeormake

Trail Blazers

Invested

$123.31

Value

$91.24

PnL

-$32.08

Record

58%

3259-2339 (5598)

VenusianCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$66.29

Value

$85.02

PnL

+$18.73

Record

32%

481-1026 (1507)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$74.1

Value

$74.1

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

296-333 (629)

38791873984189

Trail Blazers

Invested

$189.81

Value

$42.51

PnL

-$4.3

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

sentrio<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$42.98

Value

$35.7

PnL

-$7.29

Record

41%

483-698 (1181)

Pan9XCTR

Thunder

Invested

$100.28

Value

$22.34

PnL

+$22.75

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

suntoriCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$15.57

Value

$18.6

PnL

+$3.03

Record

47%

1377-1532 (2909)

User7429<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$25

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

29%

155-378 (533)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$10.83

Value

$10.63

PnL

-$0.21

Record

48%

550-600 (1150)

DolphinBaller<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$8.46

Value

$8.82

PnL

+$0.36

Record

10%

12-109 (121)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$7.77

Value

$8.17

PnL

+$0.4

Record

57%

3336-2523 (5859)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

44%

151-193 (344)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

11 of 26 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 18

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 56% · 25

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.