Spread: Trail Blazers (-25.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (38%) · Thunder at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Trail Blazers<1¢Thunder>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 38%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$13.13

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 99.6¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers0%

Thunder100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,420

Combined PnL+$140.49

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$24.81

Total Shares4,316

Combined PnL-$127.37

Thunder — 38%Trail Blazers — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Thunderavg 96.3¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$81.92	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 96.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$48	54% 930-784 (1714)
FE ferdinand2	Thunderavg 96.5¢	$329.16	$339.74	+$10.58	50% 1068-1081 (2149)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 3.1¢	$78.89	$11.31	-$67.58	50% 3375-3365 (6740)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 3.9¢	$30.35	$6.44	-$8.25	47% 847-942 (1789)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 3.7¢	$29.84	$3.58	-$26.26	60% 2805-1885 (4690)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 3.8¢	$27.53	$3.26	-$24.26	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
RN1CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 2.6¢	$1.22	$0.21	-$1.01	57% 4253-3271 (7524)

Flaznorp

Thunder

Invested

$2,464.13

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$81.92

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$1,466.16

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$48

Record

54%

930-784 (1714)

ferdinand2

Thunder

Invested

$329.16

Value

$339.74

PnL

+$10.58

Record

50%

1068-1081 (2149)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$78.89

Value

$11.31

PnL

-$67.58

Record

50%

3375-3365 (6740)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$30.35

Value

$6.44

PnL

-$8.25

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$29.84

Value

$3.58

PnL

-$26.26

Record

60%

2805-1885 (4690)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$27.53

Value

$3.26

PnL

-$24.26

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

RN1CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1.22

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$1.01

Record

57%

4253-3271 (7524)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.