Spread: Trail Blazers (-13.5)

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (53%) · Thunder at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Trail Blazers1¢Thunder99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 53%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$368.81

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 98.6¢

+18% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers1%

Thunder99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder8 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,101

Combined PnL+$428.75

Trail Blazers7 traders

Total Value$249.62

Total Shares1,791

Combined PnL-$59.95

Thunder — 53%Trail Blazers — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 84.8¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$415.23	54% 930-784 (1714)
65 6512395314597884	Thunderavg 76.5¢	$401.59	$324.92	-$76.67	50% 3375-3365 (6740)
38 38791873984189	Thunderavg 81.3¢	$488.08	$302	+$51.81	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
FL Flaznorp	Thunderavg 87.2¢	$214.48	$195.75	+$6.37	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Trail Blazersavg 19¢	$190	$180	-$10	32% 484-1020 (1504)
nigiri99	Thunderavg 80.8¢	$150.38	$167.4	+$17.02	51% 267-256 (523)
PA Pan9X	Thunderavg 79.8¢	$94.22	$116.82	+$22.6	47% 847-942 (1789)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 17¢	$61.71	$65.34	+$3.63	32% 480-1013 (1493)
TA takeormake<$100	Thunderavg 86.5¢	$25.74	$17.03	-$8.71	58% 3259-2339 (5598)
GH ghorrock<$100	Thunderavg 77¢	$3.86	$4.96	+$1.1	54% 789-676 (1465)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 11.9¢	$44.55	$3.05	-$32.5	60% 2805-1885 (4690)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 18¢	$18	$1	-$17	63% 310-179 (489)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 14¢	$6.25	$0.1	-$1.15	50% 1068-1081 (2149)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 25¢	$1.9	$0.08	-$1.82	47% 1377-1532 (2909)
RN1CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 23¢	$1.15	$0.05	-$1.1	57% 4253-3271 (7524)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$2,655.71

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$415.23

Record

54%

930-784 (1714)

6512395314597884

Thunder

Invested

$401.59

Value

$324.92

PnL

-$76.67

Record

50%

3375-3365 (6740)

38791873984189

Thunder

Invested

$488.08

Value

$302

PnL

+$51.81

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

Flaznorp

Thunder

Invested

$214.48

Value

$195.75

PnL

+$6.37

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

LightParadoxCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$190

Value

$180

PnL

-$10

Record

32%

484-1020 (1504)

nigiri99

Thunder

Invested

$150.38

Value

$167.4

PnL

+$17.02

Record

51%

267-256 (523)

Pan9X

Thunder

Invested

$94.22

Value

$116.82

PnL

+$22.6

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

LimousinCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$61.71

Value

$65.34

PnL

+$3.63

Record

32%

480-1013 (1493)

takeormake<$100

Thunder

Invested

$25.74

Value

$17.03

PnL

-$8.71

Record

58%

3259-2339 (5598)

ghorrock<$100

Thunder

Invested

$3.86

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$1.1

Record

54%

789-676 (1465)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$44.55

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$32.5

Record

60%

2805-1885 (4690)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$18

Value

PnL

-$17

Record

63%

310-179 (489)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$6.25

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.15

Record

50%

1068-1081 (2149)

suntoriCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$1.82

Record

47%

1377-1532 (2909)

RN1CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.1

Record

57%

4253-3271 (7524)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.