Spread: Trail Blazers (-11.5)

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (47%) · Thunder at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Trail Blazers2¢Thunder98¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 47%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$8.45

Smart Money Entry

81¢ → 97.9¢

+21% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers2%

Thunder98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,895

Combined PnL+$24.59

Trail Blazers9 traders

Total Value$323.66

Total Shares1,693

Combined PnL-$33.04

Thunder — 47%Trail Blazers — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Thunder) and the top 1000 (16 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

ctrTrail Blazers 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 56% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 86.4¢	$613.18	$539.28	-$73.9	54% 930-784 (1714)
nigiri99	Thunderavg 76.9¢	$279.85	$320.32	+$40.47	51% 267-256 (523)
FL Flaznorp	Thunderavg 77.8¢	$247.67	$310.52	+$62.85	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
RN1	Thunderavg 76¢	$186.51	$190.53	+$4.02	57% 4253-3271 (7524)
38 38791873984189	Thunderavg 80.7¢	$412.86	$138.03	-$17.6	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Trail Blazersavg 20.9¢	$114.6	$129.31	+$14.71	50% 3375-3365 (6740)
VE VenusianCTR	Trail Blazersavg 20¢	$86.2	$103.44	+$17.24	32% 481-1026 (1507)
PA Pan9X<$100	Thunderavg 78.7¢	$94.44	$37.98	+$7.91	47% 847-942 (1789)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 23¢	$35.73	$37.28	+$1.55	33% 490-999 (1489)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 15.7¢	$16.88	$25.81	+$8.92	53% 5981-5353 (11334)
SU suntori<$100	Thunderavg 77¢	$19.04	$21.76	+$2.72	47% 1377-1532 (2909)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 23¢	$9.89	$10.32	+$0.43	32% 480-1013 (1493)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Thunderavg 89.3¢	$14.5	$7.61	-$1.89	50% 1068-1081 (2149)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 24¢	$58.38	$6.08	-$52.3	53% 356-319 (675)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 21¢	$5.31	$6.07	+$0.76	32% 484-1020 (1504)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 15¢	$14.7	$2.84	-$11.86	58% 3259-2339 (5598)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 15¢	$15	$2.5	-$12.5	60% 2805-1885 (4690)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$613.18

Value

$539.28

PnL

-$73.9

Record

54%

930-784 (1714)

nigiri99

Thunder

Invested

$279.85

Value

$320.32

PnL

+$40.47

Record

51%

267-256 (523)

Flaznorp

Thunder

Invested

$247.67

Value

$310.52

PnL

+$62.85

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

RN1

Thunder

Invested

$186.51

Value

$190.53

PnL

+$4.02

Record

57%

4253-3271 (7524)

38791873984189

Thunder

Invested

$412.86

Value

$138.03

PnL

-$17.6

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

6512395314597884CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$114.6

Value

$129.31

PnL

+$14.71

Record

50%

3375-3365 (6740)

VenusianCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$86.2

Value

$103.44

PnL

+$17.24

Record

32%

481-1026 (1507)

Pan9X<$100

Thunder

Invested

$94.44

Value

$37.98

PnL

+$7.91

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$35.73

Value

$37.28

PnL

+$1.55

Record

33%

490-999 (1489)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$16.88

Value

$25.81

PnL

+$8.92

Record

53%

5981-5353 (11334)

suntori<$100

Thunder

Invested

$19.04

Value

$21.76

PnL

+$2.72

Record

47%

1377-1532 (2909)

LimousinCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$9.89

Value

$10.32

PnL

+$0.43

Record

32%

480-1013 (1493)

ferdinand2<$100

Thunder

Invested

$14.5

Value

$7.61

PnL

-$1.89

Record

50%

1068-1081 (2149)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$58.38

Value

$6.08

PnL

-$52.3

Record

53%

356-319 (675)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$5.31

Value

$6.07

PnL

+$0.76

Record

32%

484-1020 (1504)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$14.7

Value

$2.84

PnL

-$11.86

Record

58%

3259-2339 (5598)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$15

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$12.5

Record

60%

2805-1885 (4690)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Thunder) and the top 1000 (16 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

ctrTrail Blazers 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 56% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.