Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (64%) · Trail Blazers at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Thunder12¢Trail Blazers88¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 64%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$21.92

Smart Money Entry

74.1¢ → 88¢

+19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder12%

Trail Blazers88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,802

Combined PnL+$131.3

Thunder4 traders

Total Value$54.12

Total Shares564

Combined PnL-$109.38

Trail Blazers — 64%Thunder — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (7 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrThunder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 65.9¢	$455.12	$561.49	+$106.37	55% 843-701 (1544)
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 73.2¢	$455.48	$441.65	-$13.83	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 84¢	$368.56	$405.85	+$37.29	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Trail Blazersavg 85¢	$65.45	$71.23	+$5.78	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Trail Blazersavg 72.9¢	$48.13	$42.9	-$5.23	38% 99-159 (258)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Thunderavg 31.3¢	$88.11	$21.1	-$67.02	53% 305-275 (580)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Thunderavg 27.2¢	$61.85	$17.03	-$44.82	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Thunderavg 24¢	$12	$14	+$2	49% 786-829 (1615)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Trail Blazersavg 85¢	$9.35	$10.18	+$0.83	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
AN Anon455<$100	Trail Blazersavg 80¢	$4	$4.1	+$0.1	46% 200-233 (433)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Thunderavg 27¢	$1.54	$2	+$0.46	47% 1320-1474 (2794)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$455.12

Value

$561.49

PnL

+$106.37

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$455.48

Value

$441.65

PnL

-$13.83

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$368.56

Value

$405.85

PnL

+$37.29

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$65.45

Value

$71.23

PnL

+$5.78

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

Forecastication2<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$48.13

Value

$42.9

PnL

-$5.23

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$88.11

Value

$21.1

PnL

-$67.02

Record

53%

305-275 (580)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$61.85

Value

$17.03

PnL

-$44.82

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$12

Value

$14

PnL

+$2

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

6512395314597884<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$9.35

Value

$10.18

PnL

+$0.83

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Anon455<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

suntoriCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1.54

Value

PnL

+$0.46

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (7 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrThunder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.