Spread: Thunder (-24.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (71%) · Trail Blazers at 99¢ · $396 held · ended Nov 12

Thunder<1¢Trail Blazers>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 71%

Total Value

$396.32

Combined PnL

$2.65

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 99.1¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder1%

Trail Blazers99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$392.35

Total Shares397

Combined PnL+$8.02

Thunder2 traders

Total Value$3.97

Total Shares298

Combined PnL-$5.38

Trail Blazers — 71%Thunder — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 96.5¢	$249.51	$254.82	+$5.32	55% 843-701 (1544)
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 97.6¢	$112.24	$114.6	+$2.36	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Trail Blazersavg 97.7¢	$9.77	$9.97	+$0.2	49% 973-998 (1971)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Trail Blazersavg 97¢	$6.79	$6.72	-$0.07	38% 99-159 (258)
PA Pan9X<$100	Trail Blazersavg 97¢	$25.54	$6.24	+$0.22	49% 786-829 (1615)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Thunderavg 3.5¢	$7	$2.6	-$4.4	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Thunderavg 2.4¢	$2.34	$1.37	-$0.97	47% 1681-1866 (3547)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$249.51

Value

$254.82

PnL

+$5.32

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$112.24

Value

$114.6

PnL

+$2.36

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

ferdinand2<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$9.77

Value

$9.97

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Forecastication2<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$6.79

Value

$6.72

PnL

-$0.07

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

Pan9X<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$25.54

Value

$6.24

PnL

+$0.22

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$4.4

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$2.34

Value

$1.37

PnL

-$0.97

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.