Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (33%) · Thunder at 78¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11

Trail Blazers23¢Thunder77¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 33%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$183.29

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 77.5¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers23%

Thunder78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,473

Combined PnL+$229.6

Trail Blazers6 traders

Total Value$954.37

Total Shares3,193

Combined PnL-$46.31

Thunder — 33%Trail Blazers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Thunder) and the top 1000 (6 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 70.2¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$230.09	55% 541-436 (977)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Trail Blazersavg 37¢	$463.98	$514.14	+$50.16	53% 228-199 (427)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Trail Blazersavg 28.2¢	$434.7	$346.99	-$87.71	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
RN1	Thunderavg 63¢	$160.02	$160.02	+$0	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 25.2¢	$61.24	$55.83	-$5.4	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
TA takeormake<$100	Thunderavg 77¢	$37.73	$37.24	-$0.49	58% 3133-2226 (5359)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 22¢	$22	$23	+$1	62% 2389-1477 (3866)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 41¢	$12.3	$7.95	-$4.35	49% 498-518 (1016)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 27¢	$6.45	$6.45	-$0	48% 1027-1110 (2137)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$2,227

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$230.09

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$463.98

Value

$514.14

PnL

+$50.16

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

FlaznorpCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$434.7

Value

$346.99

PnL

-$87.71

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

RN1

Thunder

Invested

$160.02

Value

$160.02

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$61.24

Value

$55.83

PnL

-$5.4

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

takeormake<$100

Thunder

Invested

$37.73

Value

$37.24

PnL

-$0.49

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$22

Value

$23

PnL

+$1

Record

62%

2389-1477 (3866)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$12.3

Value

$7.95

PnL

-$4.35

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$6.45

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Thunder) and the top 1000 (6 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.