Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Thunder, while the market favors Trail Blazers (70%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (67%) · Thunder at 31¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Trail Blazers70¢Thunder30¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$495.52

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 30.5¢

-52% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 31%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers70%

Thunder31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,403

Combined PnL+$805.89

Thunder8 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,886

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Trail Blazers — 33%Thunder — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (11 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Trail Blazersavg 33.2¢	$730	$1.5K	+$733	53% 234-204 (438)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Thunderavg 66.4¢	$2.5K	$1.2K	$-1.3K	56% 563-451 (1014)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Thunderavg 60.7¢	$660.02	$729.91	+$148.27	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 34.8¢	$286.69	$580.38	+$306.54
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 60.7¢	$307.79	$149.52	-$158.27
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Thunderavg 64¢	$229.76	$269.25	+$39.49	61% 910-582 (1492)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Thunderavg 60.2¢	$271.01	$234.36	-$36.65	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 60.2¢	$244.62	$184.77	-$59.86
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 29¢	$26.39	$49.6	+$23.21
TA takeormakeCTR	Thunderavg 72.8¢	$209.32	$211.44	+$2.13	59% 3145-2227 (5372)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Thunderavg 45¢	$135.55	$137.05	+$1.51	53% 1703-1483 (3186)
RN1CTR	Thunderavg 45.5¢	$127.79	$129.93	+$2.14	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Trail Blazersavg 29¢	$27.55	$63.18	+$35.63	62% 2398-1492 (3890)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Trail Blazersavg 29¢	$26.1	$59.85	+$33.75	63% 193-112 (305)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Thunderavg 64¢	$23.04	$27	+$3.96	35% 280-514 (794)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Thunderavg 62.5¢	$28.59	$10.2	-$1.96	48% 512-544 (1056)
LI LightParadox<$100	Trail Blazersavg 36¢	$6.48	$9.99	+$3.51	29% 320-793 (1113)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Thunderavg 48¢	$4	$2.5	-$1.5	29% 332-810 (1142)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Trail Blazers

Invested

$730

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$733

Record

53%

234-204 (438)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Thunder

Invested

$2,521.63

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$660.02

Value

$729.91

PnL

+$148.27

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$286.6934.8¢+$306.54

Thunder$307.7960.7¢-$158.27

darkumbreon88CTR

Thunder

Invested

$229.76

Value

$269.25

PnL

+$39.49

Record

61%

910-582 (1492)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$271.01

Value

$234.36

PnL

-$36.65

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

Both legs:

Thunder$244.6260.2¢-$59.86

Trail Blazers$26.3929¢+$23.21

takeormakeCTR

Thunder

Invested

$209.32

Value

$211.44

PnL

+$2.13

Record

59%

3145-2227 (5372)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Thunder

Invested

$135.55

Value

$137.05

PnL

+$1.51

Record

53%

1703-1483 (3186)

RN1CTR

Thunder

Invested

$127.79

Value

$129.93

PnL

+$2.14

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$27.55

Value

$63.18

PnL

+$35.63

Record

62%

2398-1492 (3890)

suitcase6628<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$26.1

Value

$59.85

PnL

+$33.75

Record

63%

193-112 (305)

sentrioCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$23.04

Value

$27

PnL

+$3.96

Record

35%

280-514 (794)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$28.59

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$1.96

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

LightParadox<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$6.48

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$3.51

Record

29%

320-793 (1113)

LimousinCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

29%

332-810 (1142)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 31%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (11 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.