Spread: Trail Blazers (-26.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (67%) · Thunder at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Trail Blazers<1¢Thunder>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 67%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$9.03

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 99.6¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers0%

Thunder100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,295

Combined PnL+$61

Trail Blazers2 traders

Total Value$15.87

Total Shares1,984

Combined PnL-$51.97

Thunder — 67%Trail Blazers — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Thunder 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 97¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$31.75	56% 563-451 (1014)
FL Flaznorp	Thunderavg 95.8¢	$815.33	$682.64	+$30.99	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
38 38791873984189	Thunderavg 99.2¢	$115.32	$115.73	+$0.41	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
PA Pan9X<$100	Thunderavg 99.2¢	$52.15	$50	-$2.15	48% 512-544 (1056)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 3.4¢	$64.84	$15.07	-$49.77	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 3¢	$3	$0.8	-$2.2	62% 2398-1492 (3890)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$1,400.03

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$31.75

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

Flaznorp

Thunder

Invested

$815.33

Value

$682.64

PnL

+$30.99

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

38791873984189

Thunder

Invested

$115.32

Value

$115.73

PnL

+$0.41

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

Pan9X<$100

Thunder

Invested

$52.15

Value

$50

PnL

-$2.15

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$64.84

Value

$15.07

PnL

-$49.77

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$2.2

Record

62%

2398-1492 (3890)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Thunder 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.