Spread: Trail Blazers (-22.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (57%) · Thunder at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Trail Blazers7¢Thunder93¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 57%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$63.12

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 93¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers7%

Thunder93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,483

Combined PnL+$17.67

Trail Blazers3 traders

Total Value$104.57

Total Shares1,488

Combined PnL+$45.45

Thunder — 57%Trail Blazers — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (7 on Thunder) disagree here.

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 95.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$14.74	56% 563-451 (1014)
65 6512395314597884	Thunderavg 99¢	$198	$198.2	+$0.2	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
38 38791873984189	Thunderavg 97.6¢	$175.6	$178.38	+$2.78	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Trail Blazersavg 3.9¢	$53.2	$101.25	+$48.05	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
PA Pan9X<$100	Thunderavg 99.2¢	$49.6	$49.55	-$0.05	48% 512-544 (1056)
RN1CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 4¢	$2.32	$2.52	+$0.2	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 4.5¢	$3.6	$0.8	-$2.8	62% 2398-1492 (3890)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$1,000.88

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$14.74

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

6512395314597884

Thunder

Invested

$198

Value

$198.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

38791873984189

Thunder

Invested

$175.6

Value

$178.38

PnL

+$2.78

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

FlaznorpCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$53.2

Value

$101.25

PnL

+$48.05

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

Pan9X<$100

Thunder

Invested

$49.6

Value

$49.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

RN1CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$0.2

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3.6

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$2.8

Record

62%

2398-1492 (3890)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (7 on Thunder) disagree here.

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.2%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.