Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (78%) · Thunder at 81¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 11

Trail Blazers19¢Thunder81¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 78%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$234.45

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 80.6¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers19%

Thunder81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder7 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares8,673

Combined PnL+$251.44

Trail Blazers2 traders

Total Value$30.64

Total Shares427

Combined PnL-$16.99

Thunder — 78%Trail Blazers — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (6 on Thunder) disagree here.

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 87.5¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$21.15	56% 563-451 (1014)
FL Flaznorp	Thunderavg 83.7¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$158.02	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
65 6512395314597884	Thunderavg 80.8¢	$988.52	$962.56	+$56.6	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Thunderavg 78.1¢	$812.28	$777.84	+$51.56	62% 2398-1492 (3890)
38 38791873984189	Thunderavg 80¢	$120.92	$136.83	+$15.91	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
PA Pan9X	Thunderavg 93.2¢	$158.49	$102.48	-$13.3	48% 512-544 (1056)
CI cigarettes<$100	Thunderavg 78.2¢	$78.2	$82	+$3.8	53% 5580-4967 (10547)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 14¢	$14	$17.55	+$3.55	63% 193-112 (305)
RN1CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 10.3¢	$33.63	$13.09	-$20.54	57% 3877-2879 (6756)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$3,258.53

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$21.15

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

Flaznorp

Thunder

Invested

$2,550.48

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$158.02

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

6512395314597884

Thunder

Invested

$988.52

Value

$962.56

PnL

+$56.6

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Thunder

Invested

$812.28

Value

$777.84

PnL

+$51.56

Record

62%

2398-1492 (3890)

38791873984189

Thunder

Invested

$120.92

Value

$136.83

PnL

+$15.91

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

Pan9X

Thunder

Invested

$158.49

Value

$102.48

PnL

-$13.3

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

cigarettes<$100

Thunder

Invested

$78.2

Value

$82

PnL

+$3.8

Record

53%

5580-4967 (10547)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$14

Value

$17.55

PnL

+$3.55

Record

63%

193-112 (305)

RN1CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$33.63

Value

$13.09

PnL

-$20.54

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (6 on Thunder) disagree here.

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.4%

80.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.